Antero Resources Corporation

Antero reported quarterly production of over 4.1 Bcfe/d, a company record, up 21% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 57% year over year and free cash flow was $220 million. Total cash operating costs declined $0.29 per Mcfe, or 11%, from the year-ago period. C3+ realized price was $44.26 per barrel, up $6.41 per barrel versus last year and the highest quarterly realized price since 2022. Looking ahead, management said maintenance CapEx remains $1 billion, growth CapEx is $1.2 billion, and they are currently a bit north of $1 billion but not at the full growth level; they also said they are 34% hedged for 2027 and may add hedges if prices improve. The company is forecasting cash costs to decline by over 25% to $2/Mcfe by year-end 2028, with about $300 million of annual margin improvement expected through 2028 and a further roughly $200 million possible beyond that timeframe.

Michael Kennedy framed the quarter as evidence that Antero is becoming a more stable, less volatile business through better margins, more balanced sales exposure, and lower costs. He emphasized a shift from a producer-push market to a demand-pull market, with the company now able to choose among firm transport, local sales, and liquids options rather than simply moving gas wherever it can. His tone was confident and selective: projects must be accretive, near-term, price certain, and competitive with broader energy markets, or Antero will not participate.

Brendan Krueger focused on operational and financial execution. He highlighted record production above guidance, $220 million of free cash flow, 57% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth, and cash operating costs down $0.29/Mcfe, which he partly linked to the first full quarter of HG Energy integration. He also pointed to the dry-gas pad results: more than 67% higher EUR and nearly 30% lower cost per foot, plus $315 million of core West Virginia acquisitions that added about 125 MMcfe/d and 15 net drilling locations at about 4x EBITDA and over 20% free cash flow yield.

Analysts pressed on how aggressive Antero might be with long-term gas sales and whether the company would lean more toward buybacks, growth CapEx, or new power/data-center agreements. Management said recent power opportunities did not meet its return hurdles because of uncertainty around price, timing, and execution, and said buybacks are now more attractive at current share prices. Questions also focused on the $300 million margin plan, with management explaining that most of the improvement comes from transport optimization and contract roll-offs, while the shift toward dry gas and HG contributes a smaller portion. On hedging and acquisitions, management said 2027 is 34% hedged, and acquisitions are hedged as they are added; on 2027 completion decisions, they said they would likely complete new dry-gas pads only if Henry Hub is $3+ and basis/hedge economics are attractive.