Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.

Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $612 million versus $286 million in Q2. Shipments were 4.2 million net tons, up from 4.0 million net tons in Q2. Average net selling price was $1,177 per ton, up $53 per ton sequentially, and unit cost improved by $17 per net ton. Management guided to $715 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q4 and said 2027 could realistically reach an average of more than $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA per quarter, with the full-year path described as more than $4 billion of EBITDA under similar market conditions. CapEx is expected to be around $700 million in 2026 and just over $1 billion in 2027. The Burns Harbor C-blast furnace reline is now targeted for April 2028, preserving about 500 thousand tons of production in 2027.

Lourenco Goncalves said the quarter confirmed that the recovery is underway, with the operating environment helped by stronger domestic steel pricing, trade enforcement, and what he described as better contract renewals for 2027. He emphasized that customers are increasingly seeking secure supply rather than chasing lower spot prices, and he framed Cleveland-Cliffs as well positioned to benefit from reshoring, infrastructure, energy, and defense demand. He also highlighted the company’s reinvestment plans, including Middletown’s $1 billion modernization and project timing changes at Burns Harbor, while expressing confidence in ongoing union negotiations and the company’s standalone strategy.

Celso Goncalves Jr. said Q3 outperformed the prior guide of $575 million of adjusted EBITDA and that the company expects another step-up to $715 million in Q4 despite seasonal and maintenance headwinds. He pointed to better pricing, higher volume, and especially lower unit costs in Q3, noting costs fell by $17 per net ton versus guidance. He also said Q3 working capital was a $160 million build, but Q4 should be neutral, with major asset sales expected to close in the quarter and proceeds used to delever. He said leverage could fall below the company’s 2x-2.5x target by mid-2027 and reaffirmed debt paydown as the top capital-allocation priority.

Analysts focused on CapEx, asset-sale proceeds, contract renewals, pricing resets, working capital, and whether the company would restart capacity such as Dearborn. Management said 2026 CapEx should be about $700 million and 2027 CapEx just over $1 billion, with Q4 asset sales expected to close and working capital to be neutral. On contracts, management said more than half of the 2027 renewals are already signed, with no customer refusing so far, and expects the process largely finished by Thanksgiving. On Dearborn, management said a restart depends on customer commitments and product-mix needs, not just market tightness, and it pushed back on the idea that current auto demand alone justifies reopening it.