Capital Power Corp

Capital Power reported Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $351 million, up $29 million year over year, and AFFO of $328 million, up $93 million year over year. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA was $755 million, up $66 million, and AFFO was $482 million, up $29 million. The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $1.565 billion to $1.765 billion, AFFO of $890 million to $1.01 billion, and sustaining capital of $290 million to $330 million. Management also said it now sees about $1.25 billion of embedded annual adjusted EBITDA upside, including roughly $400 million to $550 million from contracted upside and $375 million to $700 million from merchant upside. The dividend is being increased by 2% for 2026, marking the 13th consecutive annual increase.

Avik Dey framed the quarter as evidence that Capital Power is converting existing capacity into durable cash flows through contracting and optimization, especially in Alberta and PJM. He said Alberta is 'open for business,' highlighted the Meta agreement as validation of the strategy, and repeatedly pointed to Genesee as a highly attractive long-term site for data center development. His tone was confident and constructive, with emphasis on disciplined capital allocation, flexibility across markets, and multiple options to create value with limited incremental capital.

Kevin MacIntosh said the embedded EBITDA opportunity has increased to about $1.25 billion, up from about $1.0 billion previously, driven mainly by recontracting progress, higher CONE expectations, stronger Alberta pricing views, and the Meta deal. He reaffirmed 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $1.565 billion to $1.765 billion, AFFO of $890 million to $1.01 billion, and sustaining capital of $290 million to $330 million. He noted Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $351 million and AFFO of $328 million, and said AFFO benefited from Canadian Clean Tech ITC government grants tied to Halkirk Wind and Ontario battery projects, with cash receipts expected partly in 2026 and the balance in 1H 2027. He also said the company is increasing the dividend by 2% this year and has historically maintained disciplined capital allocation.

Analysts focused on PJM regulatory changes, Genesee capacity and data-center discussions in Alberta, the Meta contract, M&A priorities, and timing for additional commercial deals. Management said PJM remains attractive for incumbent generators, especially Hummel and Rolling Hills, and that bilateral opportunities look stronger; on Alberta, it said Genesee has major optionality under Phase 2, bridging, and future development paths, and that discussions with multiple potential customers are ongoing. On M&A and Apollo, management said the pipeline is larger than last year but it remains disciplined, with the right deals needing clear upside and accretion. On the Meta contract and recontracting more broadly, management said the biggest driver of the higher EBITDA upside is faster and more constructive recontracting, with speed to power seen as the key issue rather than only price.