CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A.

CTT said first-half revenue grew 6.3%, and management highlighted organic growth of 6.3% overall. In CEP, organic revenue growth was 21.2% and EBIT rose 5.4%, while Mail & Services revenue was EUR 127.9 million in Q2 versus EUR 130.4 million last year, with recurring EBIT of EUR 9.6 million, up 37.3% year on year and margin improving from 5.4% to 7.5%. Group recurring EBITDA margin was 7.4%, free cash flow at the end of the first half was minus EUR 6.9 million, net debt was EUR 292.8 million, and leverage improved to 1.8x from 2.4x. For the full year 2026, management guided recurring EBIT of EUR 105 million to EUR 110 million for core businesses excluding non-CEP/e-commerce activities, and EUR 115 million to EUR 125 million overall. Management also said the full-year outlook assumes flattish Banco CTT recurring EBIT, continued strength in Mail & Services, and high single-digit growth in CEP volumes.

Guy Pacheco emphasized that the core business remains healthy, with strong CEP growth and excellent Mail & Services profitability offsetting a temporary setback in customs clearance. He repeatedly framed Cacesa’s weakness as regulatory-transition related, pointing to de-minimis changes, shifting flows between airports, and volatility that could persist until the market normalizes. He also stressed strategic momentum from the DHL JV, the move toward B2B clearance/fulfillment, and continued investment in out-of-home delivery and other growth levers.

Joana Freitas focused on the financial mechanics: strong revenue growth, improving cash flow, and a balance sheet with more flexibility. She said operating costs grew 7.6% in the quarter on adjusted basis, with EUR 2.4 million of fuel inflation affecting CEP, while Mail & Services benefited from cost optimization initiatives including headcount reduction. She highlighted free cash flow of EUR 31 million in the quarter, first-half free cash flow of minus EUR 6.9 million, and net debt of EUR 292.8 million, which brought leverage down to 1.8x. She also noted the bank continued to invest in technology and commercial capability, with recurring EBITDA moving from EUR 5.6 million to EUR 5.2 million and ROTE around 12.1%.

Analysts focused on why Cacesa should improve in the second half despite de-minimis uncertainty, how sustainable the strong Mail & Services EBIT is, whether CEP volume guidance is conservative after a very strong first half, and what the unsolicited nonbinding offer for Banco CTT means for strategic options. Management said Cacesa’s weakness was front-loaded and tied to temporary flow reorganization and lower marketing spend by customers, with operationally smooth execution and a potential rebound as volumes normalize. On Mail, they pointed to savings placements, business solutions, pricing mix, and cost actions as the drivers of margin strength. On Banco CTT, they confirmed the unsolicited offer, said they are evaluating strategic alternatives with a financial adviser, but gave no further detail.