Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A.

Galp did not provide quarterly revenue or EPS in this Q&A-only session. It said full-year EBITDA guidance is now circa EUR 4 billion and operating cash flow guidance is EUR 3 billion, with the update driven by continued strong operating performance and macro tailwinds; management said about 25% of the uplift came from operational drivers and the rest from macro. The company also guided to production of around 130,000 barrels a day for 2026, said spot refining margins were above $30 per barrel versus a $10 assumption for the second half, and noted underlift had about a EUR 60 million impact. The Board will propose a 10% dividend increase to EUR 0.70 per share, and management said the current EUR 250 million buyback program is unchanged. On renewables, the acquired wind portfolio brings total capacity to 2.7 GW and pro forma renewables EBITDA of roughly EUR 110 million for 2026.

Maria Joao Carioca’s message was that Galp is benefiting from a high-quality portfolio in a volatile market and is using that strength to support both performance and portfolio reshaping. She emphasized steady upstream execution, Bacalhau’s ramp-up, a relatively stable net debt profile despite cash outflows, and a stronger dividend floor. Her tone was confident but cautious, repeatedly saying the company wants more visibility before changing the broader distribution policy or making final decisions on Moeve.

Management said the business is still generating strong cash, and that the gap between EBITDA and operating cash flow partly reflects timing and tax effects, especially upstream versus downstream cash taxes. Carioca said the OCF guidance of EUR 3 billion is supported by continued operational performance and noted that cash taxes on downstream will come into accounts in 2027, while upstream taxes are already flowing through. She also said net debt remained “rather stable” despite relevant cash outflows, and explained that about EUR 20 million of the Brazilian export-tax impact had been booked so far out of an expected roughly EUR 100 million total. On capital allocation, she confirmed the EUR 250 million 2026 buyback is unchanged, while indicating distribution policy could be revisited once Moeve terms are clearer.

Analysts pressed on why buybacks were not increased, and management replied that the current 1/3 of operating cash flow framework remains in place but could be reviewed after there is more visibility on Moeve and the evolving portfolio. On Moeve, management said the transaction is long-term value creation and not being driven by near-term refining margins, and that due diligence is still the main hurdle. Questions on the new wind acquisitions focused on valuation and returns; management said both portfolios were bought below 1.2x per megawatt, with no relevant near-term CapEx on the second portfolio and high-single-digit, unlevered returns. Analysts also asked about gas sourcing, Venture Global volumes, Brazil tax policy, and minority dividends; management said hedge levels for 2026 are 70%, Venture Global is on plan, gas contract discussions are ongoing, and the low minority dividends mainly reflected tax optimization rather than operating weakness.