Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A.

For the full year, Mediobanca reported EUR 11 billion of net new money, up 30% year on year; revenue of EUR 3.7 billion; fee income above EUR 1 billion, up 14%; net profit up 4%; EPS up 7%; and cost of risk at 44 basis points versus a budget of 50-55 basis points. Q4 net new money was EUR 3.8 billion and Q4 cost of risk was 35 basis points. The group said capital generation was 270 basis points, total dividend would be EUR 1.15 per share, up 7% year on year, and the last tranche of the interim dividend is EUR 0.59 per share payable next November. Looking ahead, management guided to FY next year net new money of EUR 10 billion and TFA of EUR 123 billion to EUR 125 billion, revenue growth in the low mid-single digits, fee growth in the high single digits, reiterated cost of risk at 55 basis points, and about EUR 1.4 billion of profit, with capital above 14.5% and all distributions in cash.

Alberto Nicola Nagel framed the year as the strongest in the company’s history and tied the result to a deliberate shift toward a more capital-light, fee-driven franchise. He highlighted Wealth Management, CIB and Compass as the main growth engines and said the group is progressing toward a more international, diversified model. He was optimistic on the next phase of the plan, including higher dividends, higher capital efficiency, and the optionality of a Banca Generali transaction.

Management emphasized that cost discipline and capital generation remained strong even as the firm kept investing in the business. Operating costs rose from platform growth, headcount, technology and inflation, but cost/income stayed at 43% for the year; the CEO also cited gross operating profit growth of 8% and return on RWA of 2.9%. On funding, Mediobanca said bond stock spread was reduced from 128 to 122 and the cost of deposits was guided down from 1.84 to 1.64. For capital, the group said it generated 280 basis points, absorbed distribution and buybacks, and still expects capital above 14.5% with no regulatory headwind; it also approved a final EUR 400 million buyback tranche.

Analysts focused on three issues: whether the Banca Generali timetable is feasible, whether the 55 basis point cost-of-risk guide implies worsening asset quality, and what drives the capital ratio outlook above 14%. Management said the Banca Generali process depends on regulatory timing and discussions with Generali, but if the offer is published and conditions are met it would be irrevocable; they also said they see no asset-quality deterioration and that the higher next-year CoR guide is prudent, mainly reflecting a mix shift toward personal loans. On capital, management said the move toward about 14.5% is driven by more cash distribution and group growth, not by regulatory headwinds. They also said the net income guide was nudged down by roughly EUR 30 million to EUR 40 million for prudence, mainly due to funding costs and a slightly weaker NII outlook, but they expect upside over the year.