Mercury NZ Limited

FY '26 EBITDAF was $1,068 million, up 36% year over year. Total generation was 9.1 TWh, up 15% from FY '25, and operating expenditure was held at $370 million, down $26 million from FY '25. Operating cash flow was $762 million, stay-in-business CapEx was $150 million, and the company reinvested $710 million, or 66% of EBITDAF, into new and existing assets. Net debt to EBITDAF finished at around 2.0x, with $610 million of liquidity headroom. FY '26 ordinary dividend was $0.27 per share, up 13%, and FY '27 guidance is for EBITDAF of $1,075 million, ordinary dividend of $0.29 per share, and stay-in-business CapEx of $150 million. FY '30 EBITDAF guidance was lifted to $1.2 billion-$1.25 billion.

Stewart Hamilton framed FY '26 as a year of execution, emphasizing that Mercury turned strong earnings into outcomes through disciplined growth and a stronger balance sheet. He highlighted 41% of customers holding two or more products, churn about 5% better than market average, and record safety with TRIFR at 0.31. His tone was confident and forward-looking, stressing a balanced portfolio, optionality in growth, and the ability to stage, defer, or accelerate projects based on demand and returns.

Richard Hopkins focused on cash conversion, cost discipline, and balance-sheet strength. He said EBITDAF rose to $1.068 billion, operating cash flow was $762 million, costs were held at $370 million, and the company still ended around 2x debt to EBITDAF after reinvesting $710 million and raising the dividend. He also said the current model leaves $610 million of liquidity headroom and that internal leverage can peak around 2.6x while remaining within investment-grade guardrails.

Analysts pressed management on whether FY '27 guidance was too optimistic given El Nino, and management said the forecast was deliberately balanced, with multiple paths to deliver the $1,075 million EBITDAF target. Questions also focused on the FY '30 range and whether Waikokowai and geothermal drilling are the real drivers; management said the range is probability-weighted, depends on visible project gates, and does not require building the whole 17 TWh pipeline. Analysts also asked about Datagrid, the need for equity ownership, and the scale of the data-center opportunity; management said the equity stake helps advance the project and that compute demand is not the main constraint, power build-out is. On PKH, management said the $2.6 million per MW cost reflects strong procurement, a good site, and Nordex competition, not lower-spec equipment.