ArcelorMittal S.A.

Reported Q2 EBITDA was $2.1 billion, or $155 per ton, which management said was well above prior through-the-cycle averages. Europe delivered $98 EBITDA per ton, a three-year high, and Q3 shipments are guided to be stable to higher than Q2. Underlying free cash flow in the first half annualized at $2.5 billion, excluding seasonal working capital investments and strategic growth capex. Management said all steel segments should improve sequentially into Q3, with higher average selling prices expected and some offset from higher carbon costs as European production rises.

Genuino Christino framed the quarter as evidence of improving momentum across the business and said the operating environment strengthened through the first half. He emphasized that the recent policy backdrop in Europe is already helping, but that the full benefits of TRQ have not yet shown up in results. His tone was constructive and confident, centered on structural growth, regionalization of steel markets, and capital allocation discipline.

Christino highlighted record-low lost-time injury frequency over the first six months and said safety remains the top priority. Financially, he pointed to $2.1 billion of Q2 EBITDA, $155 per ton margins, and H1 underlying free cash flow annualizing at $2.5 billion, while noting that strategic growth projects are expected to contribute $1.8 billion of incremental EBITDA from 2026 onward. He also said $700 million of the 2025/2026 project contribution is expected this year, with $300 million already captured in H1 and another $400 million expected in H2.

Analysts focused heavily on Europe: order books, inventories, price direction, TRQ, and the impact of higher carbon costs. Management said inventories are not excessively high, imports should fall under TRQ, and the Q3 shipment guide reflects stronger customer engagement and market share gains rather than a big demand rebound. Questions on Section 232, a possible second EAF at Calvert, and North American tariff policy drew a response that ArcelorMittal is moving ahead with detailed engineering and supports greater regional policy alignment, while any policy savings remain uncertain.