Nutrien Ltd.

Nutrien reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion and first-half adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, up 6% from the prior year. Cash provided by operating activities rose 12% in the first half. Potash adjusted EBITDA was $658 million in Q2; nitrogen adjusted EBITDA was $635 million; retail first-half adjusted EBITDA was $1.24 billion, up 4% year over year. The company said first-half proprietary crop nutrients gross margin increased 10%, and the first half included a 4% increase in retail adjusted EBITDA. For 2026 guidance, Nutrien raised potash sales volume guidance to 14.2 million to 14.8 million tonnes, kept nitrogen sales volume guidance at 9.2 million to 9.7 million tonnes, kept phosphate volume guidance unchanged, maintained retail adjusted EBITDA guidance at $1.75 billion to $1.95 billion, and reduced capex to $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion. Management also said controllable cash cost for potash remains targeted below $60 per tonne for full-year 2026.

Kenneth Seitz framed the quarter as evidence that Nutrien is strengthening its business, improving free cash flow, and returning more capital to shareholders. He highlighted record potash sales volumes in the first half, growth in proprietary products, better reliability and cost performance in nitrogen, and progress on portfolio optimization, including non-core asset sales and strategic reviews. His tone was constructive and confident, emphasizing that the company is focused on operational excellence, capital efficiency, and long-term value creation.

Mark Thompson led with the core financials: $2.4 billion in Q2 adjusted EBITDA, $3.5 billion in first-half adjusted EBITDA, and 12% growth in cash provided by operating activities in the first half. He said potash Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $658 million, nitrogen was $635 million, and retail first-half adjusted EBITDA was $1.24 billion, up 4%. He also pointed to flat year-over-year potash controllable cash costs, a potash cost target below $60 per tonne, reduced capex to $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, and a faster buyback pace of about $75 million per month in Q3, which he tied to a stronger balance sheet and a mid-cycle net debt-to-EBITDA target around 1.5x.

Analysts focused heavily on potash demand, volume trajectory, and how Nutrien can expand potash capacity over time. Management said the market remains constructive, with healthy demand in major regions, Canpotex fully committed for Q3, and confidence in the raised 2026 potash volume range; they also described a path to expand from about 15 million tonnes of current capacity toward 18 million tonnes with relatively short lead times and $200 to $300 per tonne for the next increment. In retail, questions centered on weaker crop nutrient volumes and margins, SG&A inflation from fuel and fleet costs, and seed softness from lower rice acres; management said crop nutrient margins should improve in the second half, fuel costs were the main expense pressure, and the seed shortfall was mainly tied to rice acres. Phosphate and nitrogen questions brought out ongoing sulfur-cost pressure and geopolitics, but management said nitrogen buyers were not showing broad caution and that fall demand looked constructive.