National Bank of Greece S.A.

The bank reported H1 2026 profit after tax of EUR 661 million, EPS of EUR 1.45, and normalized ROTE of 15.5% (15.7% reported), with EPS 3% higher year on year. NII increased nearly 3% quarter on quarter in Q2, NIM was 273 bps, and fee income grew 10% year on year in H1, including 14% quarter on quarter in Q2. Performing loans were up over EUR 2 billion year to date, or 13% year on year, while deposits increased EUR 3.5 billion year on year. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to mid-single-digit NII growth, NIM of circa 280 bps, EPS over EUR 1.4, ROTE over 15%, fee income high single-digit growth, cost of risk below 40 bps, and loan expansion slightly over EUR 3 billion.

Pavlos Mylonas framed the quarter as evidence that the Greek economy and NBG are holding up well despite elevated volatility, with corporate demand, tourism, labor markets, and fiscal resilience all supporting the backdrop. He emphasized that NBG’s strategy is to grow revenue sustainably through lending, fees, technology, and selective capital-light partnerships such as Allianz and Dromeus, while preserving strong capital and optionality for shareholder returns. His tone was confident and strategic, especially around NBG’s technology platform, AI adoption, and the bank’s ability to create value from its balance sheet.

Christos Christodoulou highlighted H1 profit after tax of EUR 661 million, normalized ROTE of 15.5%, and EPS of EUR 1.45, saying these results justify an upward revision to full-year ROE and EPS guidance. He pointed to stronger Q2 NII, 3% quarter-on-quarter, driven mainly by volumes and improved rate dynamics, and said full-year NII growth is now expected in the mid-single digits with NIM around 280 bps. On balance sheet and risk, he cited CET1 of 17.3%, total capital of 21%, MREL of 28.4%, an LCR of 230%, deposits up EUR 3.5 billion year on year, and cost of risk below 40 bps, while keeping operating expenses growth at 8% year on year and cost-to-income below 35%.

Analysts focused on the second-half NII outlook, the pace of benefits from the new core banking system, the Dromeus partnership, loan growth guidance, dividend timing, and whether rapid lending in areas like shipping could raise future risk. Management said higher market rates, still-strong lending volumes, and slower but ongoing spread compression support the mid-single-digit NII outlook, while the technology investment will translate gradually into revenue and lower costs, mainly through AI-driven call center savings and lower legacy system licensing costs. On capital returns, management said the one-off payout decision is typically made toward year-end before the AGM, and the interim dividend is still intended, likely in Q4 if approvals progress.