Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

Q2 adjusted EBITDA was up 17% sequentially, and free cash flow was up over 400% from Q1. Total production was up 9% year over year, with record natural gas volumes up 35% year over year and 5% sequentially. Production expenses per BOE were down 4% year over year. Budgeted capital expenditures were $196 million, including $151 million of organic D&C and $45 million of ground game activity, and normalized well costs were $761 per lateral foot. The company ended the quarter with over $1 billion of total liquidity. Chad said the quarter generated $159 million of free cash flow, and Nick said current-strip 2026 adjusted EBITDA should be $1.4 billion to over $1.5 billion, with $850 million to $900 million of D&C capital and about $375 million to over $500 million of free cash flow. The board declared a $0.45 per share dividend, or about $48 million paid on July 31, and expanded repurchase capacity to approximately $243 million.

Nick O'Grady framed the quarter around three themes: the market undervaluing NOG’s assets, strong cash flow generation, and a disciplined acquisition record. He repeatedly stressed that the company is a capital allocator, not a traditional operator, and argued that the public market is focusing too narrowly on quarterly guidance and free cash flow metrics rather than asset value and inventory replacement. His tone was confident and combative, especially on the valuation disconnect, but he also said the company will keep returning cash, buying assets, and monetizing assets if that best maximizes long-term value.

Chad Allen emphasized that Q2 demonstrated the diversification of the portfolio, with other basins offsetting Permian turbulence. He pointed to adjusted EBITDA up 17% sequentially, free cash flow up over 400% from Q1, production up 9% year over year, and record gas volumes up 35% year over year. He also highlighted $196 million of budgeted capex, 3% of shares repurchased at an average of $20.37, more than $1 billion of liquidity, and a $0.45 quarterly dividend that was covered several times over by $159 million of free cash flow. His comments on capital allocation were that the dividend is a floor, not a ceiling, and that the company is using excess cash for buybacks, debt reduction, inventory, and acquisitions.

Analysts focused on whether NOG’s capex and production guidance looked conservative, the company’s leverage and debt-reduction framework, basin outperformance, LOE trends, and the impact of weather or gas volatility. Management said the guidance still assumes a steady pickup in activity, that lower costs from prior AFEs are only now flowing through because of their accrual model, and that some Permian logistics issues have resolved faster than expected. On leverage, Nick argued the company could reduce it quickly if it wanted to, but that share repurchases are an immediate, clearly accretive opportunity at current trading levels. He also said recent well performance has been strong across Appalachia, the Uinta, Williston and even early Ohio activity, while LOE should be manageable as new growth areas help offset natural cost inflation and well aging.