Origin Energy Limited

Origin reported statutory profit of $1.574 billion, underlying profit of $1.159 billion, and underlying EBITDA of $3.22 billion for FY26. Energy Markets EBITDA was $1,701 million, up 21% and at the upper end of guidance; Integrated Gas EBITDA was $1,620 million; and Octopus/Kraken share of EBITDA was minus $8 million, improved by $80 million year over year. Adjusted free cash flow was in excess of $2 billion, up over $700 million, with cash from operating activities at $1.9 billion and net debt to EBITDA at 1.6x. The board declared a $0.30 fully franked interim dividend, bringing FY26 dividends to $0.60 fully franked. For FY27, guidance is Energy Markets EBITDA of $1.55 billion to $1.85 billion, total CapEx of $450 million to $650 million, APLNG production of 625 to 670 petajoules, and APLNG CapEx and OpEx excluding purchases of $3 billion to $3.3 billion. Octopus guidance was U.K. retail EBITDA per customer of GBP 25 to GBP 50, and Kraken revenue guidance was growth greater than 20%.

Frank Calabria framed FY26 as a year where Origin delivered on earnings, cost-out and battery build milestones while also advancing the portfolio structure with the Octopus/Kraken separation. He emphasized the company’s strategic mix of strong Australian cash-generating assets and two independent growth platforms, and said the business is well positioned for the energy transition. His tone was upbeat but measured, especially on market conditions, Eraring, and the data incident, where he stressed ongoing operations, discipline and customer support.

Tony Lucas said the result reflected three themes: delivery against guidance, strong cash conversion, and a stronger balance sheet while still investing through the transition. He highlighted Energy Markets EBITDA up 21%, cash from operating activities of $1.9 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $2.1 billion, and net debt to EBITDA of 1.6x; he also noted $911 million in fully franked dividends from APLNG and that CapEx fell by $500 million as the battery build passed its peak. On capital allocation, he said the $0.30 fully franked dividend represented 50% of adjusted free cash flow and that management wants dividend stability rather than large swings in cents per share.

Analysts pressed on whether the strong balance sheet and lower FY27 CapEx should have led to a higher dividend; management said it had deliberately kept the payout stable, expects some working-capital reversal next year, and wants to stay at the lower end of the target range amid lower LNG trading gains and remaining CapEx. Questions also focused on Eraring’s potential life extension, with management saying the current plan remains an April 2029 exit, though maintenance continues and a forward decision could come with roughly 18 months’ lead time. On retail margins and regulation, management said VDO/DMO remain guides rather than absolute ceilings and that the company is focused on lowest-cost operations, product breadth and churn leadership. Analysts also asked about gas reservation and APLNG investment; management said domestic gas is currently resilient, but any scheme needs to be well designed, longer-term and investment-friendly.