Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

Petrobras reported average Brent of $69 per barrel in 2025, down 14% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA reached $42.5 billion excluding special items, or $43.8 billion including them; net income was $19.6 billion excluding special items, or $18.1 billion after exclusions. Operating cash flow totaled $36 billion for the year. The company said production increased 11% versus 2024, domestic derivative sales were 1.747 million barrels per day, refinery utilization was 91% to 92% depending on the speaker, and 68% to almost 70% of output was higher-value diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Petrobras also said it added 1.7 billion barrels of reserves and achieved a 175% reserve replacement rate. For shareholder returns, the Board approved BRL 8.1 billion, or BRL 0.62 per share, paid in two installments in May and June. Looking ahead, management said its 2026-2030 plan is built around capital discipline, higher production and greater efficiency; no specific next-quarter earnings guidance was given. They also said the current plan still assumes Brent around $50 for investment planning, while any excess cash would be assessed for investment, debt reduction and possibly extraordinary dividends.

Magda Chambriard emphasized operational execution, saying Petrobras had an unprecedented year for production growth and that the company delivered despite falling oil prices. She highlighted the Búzios, Atapu and Sépia milestones, record exports, refining efficiency and progress in low-carbon products and gas processing. Her tone was highly confident and combative, repeatedly stressing that Petrobras is resilient and can perform across oil-price scenarios.

Fernando Melgarejo focused on the financial resilience of the business model. He said the company generated $36 billion of operating cash flow in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $42.5 billion excluding special items and net income of $19.6 billion excluding special items, while Brent averaged $69 per barrel, down 14%. He also pointed to $20 billion-plus of capex, 84% of investment going to exploration and production, gross debt of $69.8 billion at December 31, 2025, and a BRL 8.1 billion dividend payout approved for the quarter. He framed capital allocation around discipline, efficiency and production growth, and said the company wants to converge to $65 billion of cash over five years.

Analysts pressed management on how Petrobras would respond to geopolitical disruption and Brent volatility, especially whether it would raise domestic fuel prices or use hedging. Management said it has no hedging strategy, does not transfer volatility directly to the Brazilian market, and reviews commercial decisions daily; Schlosser said Petrobras had not adjusted diesel prices in 300 days. Questions also focused on excess cash, Braskem, and whether platform start-ups could be accelerated; management said any surplus cash would first support scheduled investments and debt, while Braskem remains subject to approvals and potential synergy benefits, with no commitment on capital injection. On growth, management said P-78 and P-79 ramp-ups are being accelerated, while P-80, P-82 and P-83 sail-away timing remains in 2026 and early 2027.