Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

Petrobras said Q2 2026 oil production was 2.7 million barrels per day, up 15% year over year, and equivalent production exceeded 3 million barrels per day. Adjusted EBITDA excluding one-offs was $20 billion, nearly double the level of 12 months ago and 70% above the prior quarter; gross profit was $19.5 billion, the highest in company history. Operating cash flow was $12.3 billion, up nearly 50% sequentially. Capex reached $5.3 billion in the quarter and $10.4 billion in the first half, with 82% focused on E&P. Refinery utilization was 101% for the quarter, reaching about 102% in April and May; oil product output rose 6% and imports fell 40%. Gross debt was $70.8 billion and net debt was $60.4 billion, and Petrobras said it still expects debt to converge toward $65 billion over the plan horizon. For 2026, management said production remains above the top of its guidance range, cash investments are expected to finish at the top of the range, and operating expenses are slightly above plan due to freight, logistics, and FX.

Magda de Chambriard emphasized that Petrobras is outperforming its goals through operating execution, not asset sales, and said the quarter showed the highest recurring net profit and gross profit in Petrobras history. She repeatedly framed the story as one of better reservoir management, faster project deliveries, and higher refinery and export performance, while stressing capital discipline and governance. Her tone was confident and assertive, but she also noted the company cannot promise it will always beat targets and must work within natural decline and market volatility.

Fernando Melgarejo tied the financial record to record operating performance, saying the company’s higher production, faster ramp-ups, and stronger refining output drove the quarter. He cited $5.3 billion of quarterly capex, $10.4 billion in first-half capex, $20 billion of adjusted EBITDA excluding one-offs, $19.5 billion in gross profit, and $12.3 billion in operating cash flow. On the balance sheet, he said Petrobras repaid $2.9 billion of loans and financing, ended with $70.8 billion of gross debt and $60.4 billion of net debt, and expects debt to trend toward $65 billion; he also said operating expenses are slightly above plan and could exceed the projection if logistics costs and FX stay elevated. He added that contract renegotiations on recharters and well services are expected to save more than $1 billion in cash flow over 2026-2030 and reduce debt by more than $400 million by 2030.

Analysts focused on how conservative the production plan is, whether P-80 could be pulled forward, diesel import strategy, how durable the low decline rate is, and what Petrobras might do with excess cash. Management said the production outlook still includes a leeway of about 4%, but they are trying to bring forward P-80 to Q1 2027 while warning that weather and offshore conditions limit certainty. On diesel, management said imports remain based on competitiveness and profitability, and that local market conditions and seasonality are already built into planning. On capital allocation, Fernando said debt reduction is the top priority after high-return project acceleration, while extraordinary dividends are seen as very unlikely for now; questions on Braskem, gas regulation, international expansion, and M&A were all met with cautious, governance-first answers.