Rubis

Rubis reported H1 2025 EBITDA up 3% year over year, described as flat on a comparable basis. Net income group share rose 26% to EUR 163 million, while cash flow from operations was EUR 276 million for the half year. On the balance sheet, corporate net debt was stable at 1.4x, total net debt stood at EUR 1.4 billion, corporate debt at EUR 910 million, and liquidity included more than EUR 180 million under the RCF plus EUR 530 million of cash on balance sheet. CapEx was roughly stable at EUR 73 million in the distribution business and EUR 85 million in renewables, with nearly 85 MW put in operation and 290 MW under construction. Management reaffirmed full-year EBITDA guidance of EUR 710 million to EUR 760 million and said the 2025 assumptions include the same hyperinflation level as 2024, with a positive EBITDA impact of EUR 24 million, though they cautioned this is uncertain until closing. They also said the initial EUR/USD assumption was 1.05, but the rate had moved to around 1.16-1.17, and H1 performance should help offset the H2 currency impact.

Clarisse Gobin-Swiecznik emphasized that Rubis’ diversified model again delivered steady results despite a uncertain macro backdrop, with growth in volumes and margins across all regions and product lines. She highlighted commercial momentum in European LPG, improving demand in Nigeria, and Photosol progressing in line with 2027 objectives. Her tone was confident and consistent: the company sees its execution, agility, and disciplined management as the reason it can keep delivering through the cycle.

Marc Jacquot focused on the quality of the financial performance and the drivers beneath it. He said EBITDA was up 3% year on year, net income group share rose to EUR 163 million, and the absence of FX losses was a major benefit versus last year; interest costs also declined thanks to lower debt in Kenya and better rates. He noted cash flow from operations of EUR 390 million was up 11%, working capital was a EUR 68 million drag, total net debt was EUR 1.4 billion with corporate leverage at 1.4x, and liquidity remained strong with more than EUR 180 million available under the RCF and EUR 530 million cash on hand. He also said renewables CapEx is increasing as the growth plan is derisked, with EUR 85 million of renewables CapEx in H1 and full-year Photosol CapEx expected at EUR 150 million to EUR 160 million.

Analysts focused on why EBITDA was only stable on a comparable basis despite 5% volume growth, and management pointed to lower fuel unit margins in the Caribbean, especially Jamaica, plus a bitumen margin comparison skewed by last year’s Nigeria devaluation effects. Questions also centered on FX and hyperinflation assumptions; management said the guidance embeds the same hyperinflation level as 2024, but the actual impact is uncertain until closing, and that H1 strength should offset the weaker EUR/USD assumption versus the start of the year. Other questions covered SAF, where management said Rubis is flexible and already distributes SAF in some places but demand and supply are still limited, and tariffs, where management said Rubis sees no direct P&L impact because it is not exposed to the U.S. or China and its products are relatively inelastic.