Renewable Energy Group, Inc.

Revenue was slightly over $1 billion, up 76% from Q3 2020. Net income was $42 million, adjusted EBITDA was $68 million, and gallons sold were 176 million. Gross profit rose $15 million, or 20%, year over year, while adjusted EBITDA increased $14 million, or 25%, versus Q3 2020. The quarter included a $12 million timing-related risk management loss, compared with a $6 million gain included in guidance, and management said roughly $10 million of that loss is expected to reverse in Q4. For Q4, the company is targeting 135 million to 155 million gallons sold and adjusted EBITDA of $50 million to $75 million, including an estimated $7 million risk management loss as of October 25. Full-year guidance is 609 million to 629 million gallons sold and adjusted EBITDA of $278 million to $303 million.

CJ Warner framed the quarter as evidence that REG is benefiting from the energy transition and from demand for low-carbon fuels that can be used now without infrastructure changes. She emphasized that the company is optimizing its portfolio, feedstock mix, and downstream channels to capture margin, while also positioning for future growth in renewable diesel, marine, rail, and potentially SAF. Her tone was confident and strategic, with repeated references to being “at the right place at the right time” and to the company’s ability to deliver real carbon reductions today.

Craig Bealmear highlighted revenue slightly above $1 billion, gross profit up $15 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $68 million. He explained that the quarter’s EBITDA came in below guidance mainly because of a $12 million loss in the risk management book, which was $18 million worse than the $6 million gain embedded in guidance; about $10 million of that is expected to offset in Q4. He also pointed to over $1 billion in cash and marketable securities as of September 30, the $950 million Geismar project budget, 15%/45%/remainder capital spending phasing across 2021/2022/2023, over 80% of long-lead equipment ordered, a tax rate expected to remain below 5%, and a blended average interest rate of 5.87%.

Analysts focused on policy support, Geismar’s potential to shift toward more SAF, industry supply rationalizations, the benefits of new rail and marine partnerships, and whether Q4 margins might improve despite lower RD supply. Management said there is growing political and customer support for bio-based diesel, that SAF at Geismar would mostly require optimization changes rather than major capital spending, and that some weaker biodiesel plants may be vulnerable, especially those with less advantaged feedstock or logistics. On rail and marine, CJ Warner said the agreements are early but meaningful, with GoodFuels an 18-month deal and Canadian National multi-year, and noted these markets have very large addressable volumes.