TC Energy Corporation

TC Energy said second-quarter comparable EBITDA increased 12% year over year. Canada Gas EBITDA rose $38 million, or 4%; U.S. EBITDA rose $129 million, or 12%; Mexico EBITDA rose $90 million, or 28%; and Power and Energy Solutions EBITDA rose $60 million, or 20%. Bruce Power achieved 99% availability, and Unit 3 returned to service more than 7 months ahead of the ISO schedule and about 15% below the cost of Unit 6. Management now expects to land at the upper end of its 2026 comparable EBITDA outlook of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion, and reiterated 2028 comparable EBITDA of $12.6 billion to $13.1 billion. The company also expects approximately $3.5 billion of assets to be placed into service by year-end, with about $2 billion already placed in service in the first half. On growth, about $3 billion of projects have been sanctioned year-to-date, the pending approval bucket is about $7 billion, and the origination backlog is over $20 billion. Francois Poirier said the company is on track for approximately $6 billion to $8 billion of sanctioned capital in 2026, and Sean O'Donnell reiterated the 4.75x leverage target.

Francois Poirier framed the quarter as evidence that TC Energy's incumbent footprint in high-growth markets is translating into a larger, higher-quality backlog. He emphasized disciplined execution, safety, and strong commercial relationships, pointing to project wins tied to LNG, power, and data center demand in both Canada and the U.S. He also said the company is seeing strong momentum in Alberta, the Midwest, and Bruce Power, and that TC intends to keep balancing capital across geographies and risk profiles rather than simply chasing the highest standalone IRR.

Sean O'Donnell said TC Energy delivered 12% year-over-year comparable EBITDA growth and is now targeting the upper end of the 2026 EBITDA range of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion. He pointed to specific drivers: Canada Gas up $38 million, U.S. up $129 million, Mexico up $90 million, and Power and Energy Solutions up $60 million, with Bruce Power availability at 99%. He also reiterated the 2028 EBITDA target of $12.6 billion to $13.1 billion, said about $700 million moved from pending into sanctioned this quarter, and reaffirmed the 4.75x leverage target while discussing future funding options such as organic deleveraging, capital rotation, hybrids, and private credit.

Analysts focused heavily on Alberta demand, the Crossroads project, the rapidly expanding backlog, and how TC Energy will fund growth if several projects reach FID around the same time. Management said the $1 billion increase in pending approval is largely Crossroads, that the project is expected to be sanctioned in the fourth quarter, and that the origination backlog is about $20 billion, with roughly two-thirds in the U.S. and about one-third in Canada. They also said the AI pipeline is still early, with a 2026 target of $100 million of AI-related incremental EBITDA, and that the company is on track to hit about half of that this year.