TC Energy Corporation

TC Energy said 2Q comparable EBITDA increased 12% year over year. By segment, comparable EBITDA rose $38 million, or 4%, in Canada Gas; $129 million, or 12%, in the U.S.; $90 million, or 28%, in Mexico; and $60 million, or 20%, in Power and Energy Solutions. Daily average flows across the 3-country gas network were up 3% year over year, and Bruce Power posted 99% availability in the quarter. For 2026, management is now targeting the upper end of its comparable EBITDA range of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion. For 2028, the company continues to target comparable EBITDA of $12.6 billion to $13.1 billion, which it said implies about 6% annualized midpoint growth from 2025 results. Year-to-date, TC Energy placed about $2 billion of assets into service and expects about $3.5 billion in-service by year-end. It sanctioned about $3 billion of growth projects year-to-date, with a weighted-average unlevered after-tax IRR of approximately 12%, and said late-stage pending approval projects are about $7 billion, up $1 billion from last quarter. The company said its over $20 billion origination backlog is extending visibility well beyond 2030.

Francois Poirier emphasized that TC Energy is converting demand growth into high-return projects, leaning on its incumbent footprint, execution discipline and long-standing customer relationships. He highlighted strong demand from LNG, power and data centers, plus reliability needs in Canada and the U.S. Heartland, and said the company is seeing visible commercial interest across both regulated and unregulated opportunities. His tone was confident and constructive, but he repeatedly framed growth as disciplined and risk-adjusted rather than aggressive.

Sean O'Donnell focused on strong operational performance flowing through to financial results and said the quarter is supporting the upper end of the 2026 EBITDA outlook. He pointed to higher comparable EBITDA across every segment, including Canada Gas, U.S. Gas, Mexico and Power, and reiterated the 2026 range of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion and 2028 target of $12.6 billion to $13.1 billion. He also stressed balance sheet discipline, repeating the 4.75x leverage target and saying future growth funding will be managed with a dollar-per-share lens, supported first by EBITDA growth, then by project sanctioning, and potentially by capital markets if needed.

Analysts focused heavily on Alberta demand, Crossroads, the growing backlog, AI initiatives, Canadian regulatory returns, Mexico strategy, supply chain capacity and Bruce Power funding. Management said the increase in pending approval is largely Crossroads and that the project is expected to be sanctioned in the fourth quarter, while the $20 billion-plus origination pool is mostly power-related and roughly two-thirds U.S. and one-third Canadian. On AI, Francois Poirier said pilots are still small and not linearly scalable, but the company has a 2026 target of $100 million of AI-related incremental EBITDA and is on track about halfway through the year. On Canadian returns, management said the framework is still being discussed with customers, while on supply chain it said equipment is secured for sanctioned projects and it does not see in-service-date risk from supply constraints.