Vistra Corp.

Vistra reported second-quarter 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $1.767 billion, up more than 30% year over year from approximately $1.35 billion. Generation Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $994 million, versus approximately $593 million in Q2 2025, while retail Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $773 million, versus approximately $756 million in Q2 2025. Management said average realized prices were approximately 5% higher per MWh year over year, and commercial availability was over 97% across the fleet during recent heat waves. For 2026, Vistra reaffirmed Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion-$7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion-$4.725 billion, and said it expects to be at or above the midpoint. For 2027, it maintained the Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion-$7.8 billion, excluding Cogentrix and the Meta PPA contribution.

Jim Burke emphasized that Vistra is operating in a structurally improved demand environment, citing new all-time summer peak loads in PJM and ERCOT and strong data center development activity. He said the company remains well positioned because of its diversified fleet, development capabilities, retail franchise, and commercial team. His tone was upbeat but pragmatic, stressing operational excellence, customer flexibility, and the need for policy and queue reforms to keep markets reliable and affordable.

Kris Moldovan highlighted the quarter’s financial strength, including $1.767 billion of Adjusted EBITDA and strong segment performance in both generation and retail. He reaffirmed 2026 guidance, said the company is confident in being at or above midpoint, and explained that 2027 is being pressured by lower ERCOT forwards but supported by higher PJM prices, hedging, and the nuclear PTC. He also stressed capital discipline: Vistra expects more than $10 billion of available cash in 2026 and 2027, has already allocated about $3 billion to equity holders across those years, has about $1.2 billion of repurchase authorization left, and expects to allocate about $4.5 billion-$5 billion to growth investments.

Analysts focused on Texas data center audits, Batch Zero delays, ERCOT/PJM contracting dynamics, PJM’s evolving RBP and IRAS framework, and the new Helix platform. Management said the Texas audit should pause reviews for a couple of months but does not change its long-term ERCOT outlook or its Comanche Peak timing, and it views queue thinning as helpful for realistic policy decisions. On PJM, Vistra said customers still want both energy and capacity, bilaterals remain important, and co-location looks attractive because FERC’s June order supported it and speed to market matters. On Helix, management said it is a founding investor and preferred power partner, with flexibility to add up to $1 billion over time and to participate only where deals fit its return targets.