United States Steel Corporation

U.S. Steel reported third-quarter net earnings of $299 million, or $1.20 per diluted share; adjusted net earnings were $350 million, or $1.40 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $578 million, free cash flow was positive $232 million, and the company said it generated $655 million of investable free cash flow after $423 million of strategic capex. Segment EBITDA included Flat Rolled at $378 million, Mini Mill at $84 million, Europe at $10 million, and Tubular at $99 million. The company ended the quarter with $5.5 billion of total liquidity, including $3.2 billion of cash, and leverage of two times adjusted debt to EBITDA. For full-year 2023, management said adjusted EBITDA should shake out at around $2 billion. For 2024, management said it expects at least a similar level of EBITDA versus 2023, with $155 million to $210 million of incremental strategic-project EBITDA, about $100 million of cost benefits, and approximately $1 billion less strategic capex in 2024 versus 2023. Fourth-quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $200 million and $250 million.

Dave Burritt framed the quarter around three themes: strong current performance, ongoing strategic review interest, and the chance to bridge investors to higher 2024 EBITDA than the market appears to expect. He emphasized the company’s “Best for All” strategy, said the board is committed to maximizing stockholder value, and repeatedly highlighted the breadth of bidder interest while refusing to discuss specifics. His tone was upbeat and confident, especially on the value creation from Big River 2, NGO electrical steel, and other investments now nearing completion.

Jessica Graziano led with the hard numbers: $299 million of net earnings, $1.40 adjusted EPS, $578 million of adjusted EBITDA, and $232 million of free cash flow in Q3. She highlighted $423 million of strategic capex in the quarter, $5.5 billion of liquidity, $3.2 billion of cash, and leverage at two times adjusted debt to EBITDA; buybacks remain paused, with $125 million left on the $500 million authorization. On 2024, she said the company expects about $155 million to $210 million of strategic-project EBITDA, roughly $100 million of fixed-cost benefits, and about $50 million to $100 million of cash outlay slipping into 2025, but not materially. She also guided Q4 adjusted EBITDA to $200 million to $250 million and said pricing will be a headwind across segments.

Analysts pressed on the 2024 assumptions, especially the use of $750 HRC versus the then-current forward curve closer to $850, and management said it deliberately used the sell-side consensus level to bridge expectations rather than assume recent spot strength. Questions also focused on Granite City’s temporary idle and what would trigger a restart; management said it will watch the order book, the resolution of the UAW strikes at GM and Stellantis, and broader demand before deciding. On Europe, analysts challenged the company’s stability outlook, and management said Q4 should be steadier because of higher shipments, lower outage costs, and cost/energy tailwinds, though Europe remains challenged. Analysts also asked about capital returns and post-Big River 2 growth, but management declined to go beyond saying cash returns will be discussed with the board when appropriate and that it would not discuss 2025 plans.