ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

ZTO reported Q4 2025 parcel volume of 10.56 billion, up 9.2% year over year, and full-year 2025 parcel volume of 38.5 billion, up 13.3%. Total revenue was RMB 14.5 billion in Q4, up 12.3%, and RMB 49.1 billion for the full year, up 10.9%. Gross profit was RMB 3.7 billion in Q4, down 2.1%, and RMB 12.3 billion for the year, down 10.5%; gross margin was 25.4% in Q4, down 3.7 points, and 25.0% for the year, down 6 points. Adjusted net income was RMB 2.7 billion in Q4 and RMB 9.5 billion for 2025. Operating income was RMB 3.2 billion in Q4 and RMB 10.5 billion for the year, down 7.6% and 11.1%, respectively. For 2026, management expects parcel volume growth of 10% to 13%, implying 42.37 billion to 43.52 billion parcels.

Chairman and CEO Meisong Lai framed 2025 as a transition year for the industry, with anti-involution policy helping shift competition from price to quality and with ZTO positioning itself as a leader in “healthy and sustainable development.” He emphasized service quality, end-to-end cost reduction, network fairness, and protection of outlet and courier economics as the company’s core priorities. His tone was confident and strategic, repeatedly stressing long-term value creation over short-term market-share chasing.

CFO Huiping Yan highlighted that Q4 ASP for core express delivery rose 2.9% due to mix improvement, partially offset by higher volume incentives, while full-year ASP declined 1.7%. She said total cost of revenue increased to RMB 10.8 billion in Q4 and RMB 36.8 billion for the year, but the combined unit cost for sorting and transportation fell RMB 0.04 in Q4 and RMB 0.06 for the full year, helped by scale and productivity. Operating cash flow was RMB 4.2 billion in Q4 and RMB 12 billion for the year, and capex totaled RMB 6.1 billion. She also outlined capital returns: a USD 0.39 semi-annual dividend, completion of about USD 600 million of buybacks so far under the new convertible-related program, and a new 24-month USD 1.5 billion buyback authorization.

Analysts focused on how durable the anti-involution price recovery could be, what 2026 priorities should be among market share, profit, and network governance, and whether the company’s early-2026 convertible issuance was mainly to fund buybacks. Management said the anti-involution trend has improved pricing and should support competition staying above cost, while the industry is moving from volume-driven growth to quality-driven growth. On the convertible and buyback, management said the USD 1.5 billion issue was used because the company believed its valuation was undervalued and that the proceeds, about USD 1.4 billion net, were intended solely for share repurchases. They added that the new RMB 200 million special service incentive fund is meant to support higher-quality outlets and frontline employees.