The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book shows modest U.S. growth, flat consumer spending and a cooling labor market, but persistent input-cost pressure keeps inflation risks alive. With markets pricing a September rate hike, the report reinforces a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
August’s ADP report showed private employers added just 38,000 jobs, well below forecasts and July’s revised pace. The miss points to a cooling labor market rather than a breakdown, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to balance softer hiring against still-sticky inflation.
U.S. factory activity eased in August as the ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped from a four-year high, but expansion continued. New orders and hiring slowed, while prices paid stayed elevated at 71.1, keeping inflation concerns and Federal Reserve rate-hike risk firmly in focus.
July’s JOLTS report showed U.S. job openings edging higher to 7.271 million, but hiring slowed and the total missed expectations. The data points to a steady, low-fire labor market that gives the Federal Reserve little reason to rush a policy shift.
Texas factory activity jumped in August as the Dallas Fed index beat forecasts by a wide margin. New orders, production and future expectations all improved, but manufacturers still face elevated raw material costs and margin pressure, keeping inflation concerns on the Fed’s radar.
This week’s US calendar is dominated by the August jobs report after July’s 23,000 payroll decline. Factory orders, jobless claims, the ISM services survey, the Beige Book, and Fed speeches will help determine whether the economy is cooling fast enough to shift policy expectations.
Fresh US data showed resilient growth, cooling labor conditions and inflation that refused to ease. July PCE stayed sticky, GDPNow jumped, and jobless claims remained low, reinforcing the case for a higher-for-longer Fed stance as Jackson Hole and Treasury yields turned more hawkish.
August’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment slipped to 51.7, signaling weaker household confidence, even as one-year inflation expectations eased to 4.0%. The mixed report leaves the Federal Reserve balancing softer growth signals against inflation worries, with markets still leaning toward a more hawkish policy path.
The Federal Reserve’s assets slipped to $6.731 trillion, but the small weekly decline points more to reserve management than fresh tightening. Treasury and MBS moves largely offset, while inflation, repo conditions and Treasury supply remain the bigger drivers of rate expectations.
Freddie Mac’s latest survey shows the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.66% and the 15-year rate at 5.98%, keeping borrowing costs elevated. The small weekly move offers little relief for buyers or refinancers as housing demand stays weak and affordability remains strained.
U.S. jobless claims fell to 203,000, reinforcing a labor market that is cooling but still resilient. Low layoffs and declining continuing claims give the Federal Reserve room to stay focused on inflation, even as the rising four-week average points to slowing hiring momentum.
U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.1% in July, topping forecasts and signaling resilient business investment even as ex-transportation growth cooled. Strong core shipments and capital goods orders support the growth outlook, but the mixed breadth keeps the report from pointing to a broad factory boom.
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