The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
87 articles
The MBA’s latest survey shows the 30-year mortgage rate rising to 6.65%, its highest level since August, while total applications dropped 8.5%. Refinancing was hit hardest, but purchase demand also softened, underscoring how quickly higher borrowing costs are cooling housing activity.
Texas manufacturing edged back into expansion in May, with the Dallas Fed index rising to 0.4 and beating expectations. Production, new orders and shipments stayed positive, but raw materials prices jumped to an eight-month high, reinforcing a cautious Fed outlook.
U.S. consumer confidence dipped to 93.1 in May, marking the first decline after three straight gains, but still topped expectations. Inflation worries tied to Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment, while labor-market views held up, suggesting households remain cautious rather than alarmed.
March Case-Shiller data shows U.S. home prices still rising, but barely. Annual gains slowed again, more than half of major metros posted declines, and mortgage rates near 6.5% kept affordability under pressure as inflation continued to outpace housing gains.
A packed May 28 data dump could sharpen the Fed outlook as April PCE, income, spending, jobless claims and durable goods all hit at once. With inflation still firm, labor conditions steady and several Fed officials sounding hawkish, markets may be forced to price a longer pause.
A mix of firm growth, rising inflation expectations and hawkish Fed commentary pushed markets toward a higher-for-longer rate outlook. Low jobless claims and stronger PMI data showed resilience, but record-low consumer sentiment and surging input prices revived stagflation fears.
The University of Michigan survey showed year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.8% while consumer sentiment sank to an all-time low of 44.8. The mixed signal suggests households still feel squeezed, strengthening the case for the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate surged to 6.51%, the highest in nearly nine months, as rising Treasury yields tightened housing affordability. The spike threatens spring homebuying momentum and reinforces a higher-for-longer rate backdrop for the Fed.
The latest U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI stayed in expansion territory at 51.7, but the details were less reassuring. Manufacturing jumped while services softened, and price pressures surged to their highest levels since 2022, reinforcing a hold-for-longer stance from the Fed.
April housing data showed a mixed picture for U.S. construction: building permits rose above forecasts, while housing starts dipped from March. Multifamily projects powered the gains, but single-family activity weakened, underscoring persistent affordability pressure and a housing market that is resilient, yet far from booming.
Weekly jobless claims edged lower, reinforcing a U.S. labor market that is cooling but still resilient. Initial claims remained near historically low levels, while continuing claims ticked up, suggesting it is taking longer for displaced workers to find new jobs. The report trims near-term Fed cut hopes.
The MBA’s 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.56%, its highest in seven weeks, as applications fell and purchase demand weakened. The rise underscores persistent affordability pressure, a fragile refinance market, and a housing sector still struggling to regain momentum amid higher borrowing costs.
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