The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
U.S. mortgage rates barely moved, but borrowing costs stayed pinned near their 52-week high, keeping housing demand under pressure. The MBA’s 30-year conforming rate edged to 6.78%, while mortgage applications fell 1.0%, with refinancing and purchase activity both weaker than a year ago.
The U.S. economy kept expanding in Q2, but growth cooled to 1.5% while the GDP price index surged to 6.4%. Strong domestic demand and business investment helped offset weaker trade, yet the hotter inflation reading keeps the Federal Reserve under pressure to stay cautious.
US factory activity in the Richmond Fed survey stayed positive in August, but momentum cooled as new orders, employment and capital spending weakened. The index fell to 4, below expectations, while rising input and output prices complicated the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
U.S. consumer confidence slipped in August to a seven-month low, with households still positive on current conditions but increasingly pessimistic about the months ahead. Rising inflation expectations and weaker spending signals suggest a more cautious consumer, while the Federal Reserve remains focused on keeping policy patient.
U.S. housing data shows a sharp split: new-home sales sank 10.5% in July as mortgage rates kept buyers on the sidelines, while Case-Shiller prices still rose and building permits climbed. The mix points to weaker demand, but not a full housing breakdown.
A packed week of U.S. data will test the balance between slowing growth and sticky inflation. Consumer confidence, housing, durable goods, PCE inflation, jobless claims, and trade figures could all sway rate expectations and the outlook for third-quarter growth.
Fresh US data showed the economy still expanding, with strong PMI and factory readings and jobless claims falling. But housing starts and signed-home contracts slipped, underscoring the strain from high mortgage rates and keeping the Federal Reserve on a cautious, higher-for-longer path.
The Fed’s latest H.4.1 report shows total assets edging down only slightly, while Treasury holdings increased and reserves shifted across liquidity accounts. The small weekly move suggests steady plumbing, not a new tightening shock, leaving rate expectations driven more by inflation and jobs data.
U.S. mortgage rates eased for a second straight week, with the 30-year fixed rate slipping to 6.65% and the 15-year rate falling to 5.95%. Even so, borrowing costs remain elevated, keeping affordability strained, limiting refinancing, and pointing to subdued housing activity.
Weekly jobless claims sent a mixed signal as initial filings dropped to 206,000, while continuing claims climbed to 1.799 million. The report points to a resilient but cooling labor market, easing recession fears and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s case for patience on rate cuts.
The MBA’s 30-year mortgage rate stayed at 6.77%, near a one-year high, even as applications ticked higher. The reading underscores a high-cost housing market, fading refinance incentives, and a restrictive backdrop that keeps pressure on homebuyers, builders, and Fed policy expectations.
The latest FOMC minutes struck a hawkish tone, showing officials still see inflation as too hot for a cut and leaving another hike on the table. With growth holding up and labor markets stable, the Fed appears set to keep policy restrictive while bond yields stay elevated.
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