The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index held at 0.0 in June, signaling flat Texas factory activity as new orders and production cooled. But hiring surged, prices stayed elevated, and future business sentiment improved, leaving the state’s manufacturing outlook mixed rather than outright weak.
This week’s calendar is led by Thursday’s June labor report, with payrolls expected to slow to 114,000 and unemployment seen at 4.3%. Manufacturing, housing, and mortgage rates will help confirm whether the economy is cooling without cracking—and whether rate expectations need a reset.
Michigan’s 1-year inflation expectations slipped to 4.6% in June from 4.8%, while consumer sentiment jumped to 49.5. The data eases fears of a fresh inflation scare, but expectations remain elevated, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold and households cautious about prices.
U.S. durable goods orders fell sharply in May, but the decline was driven largely by aircraft volatility after April’s surge. Core orders and business investment held up, while the Kansas Fed manufacturing index jumped, suggesting factory demand remains resilient and keeping the Fed on a cautious path.
The Federal Reserve’s latest H.4.1 report showed total assets unchanged at $6.736 trillion, signaling a neutral weekly liquidity picture. After ending balance-sheet runoff, the Fed is now focused on keeping reserves ample while rate policy remains the main tightening tool.
U.S. mortgage rates barely budged this week, with the 30-year fixed holding near 6.5%. The steady but restrictive backdrop is keeping affordability tight, cooling purchase demand, and leaving the housing market stuck in a higher-for-longer financing environment.
The final Q1 GDP reading was revised up to 2.1%, but the details were less upbeat. Business investment did the heavy lifting while consumer spending nearly stalled and the GDP price index stayed sticky at 3.6%, reinforcing a higher-for-longer Fed outlook.
Weekly jobless claims painted a mixed picture of the U.S. labor market: layoffs eased more than expected, but continuing claims climbed, suggesting slower re-employment. The data point to a cooling economy rather than a crack in employment, reinforcing a patient stance from the Federal Reserve.
The MBA’s 30-year mortgage rate edged down to 6.59%, but borrowing costs remain trapped near 6.6%. Applications rose slightly, yet purchase demand stayed weak while refinancing picked up. The latest data suggest housing is getting only marginal relief, not a meaningful turnaround.
May new home sales fell 7.3%, a sharp miss that underscores how high mortgage rates and stretched affordability are weighing on demand. Building permits also slipped, suggesting builders are becoming more cautious as the housing market continues to lose momentum.
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to 4 in June from 13 in May, missing expectations and signaling a sharp loss of momentum. The headline still shows expansion, but weaker shipments, new orders and negative employment point to a softer factory backdrop with rising price pressures.
U.S. business activity accelerated in June, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 52.2 and manufacturing leading the gain. But hotter input costs, softer new orders, and a weak factory hiring reading suggest growth remains uneven and the Fed may stay cautious.
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