The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
171 articles
Small-business confidence barely budged in April, with the NFIB Optimism Index stuck below its long-run average. Owners reported firmer price increases, softer sales expectations, and still-tight labor conditions, signaling a cautious Main Street backdrop that keeps inflation concerns alive for the Fed.
U.S. inflation reaccelerated in April, with CPI rising 3.8% year over year and core prices also firming. The hotter-than-expected report pushed Treasury yields higher, strengthened the dollar, and renewed pressure on stocks as traders priced in a longer Fed pause.
U.S. existing home sales edged up to 4.02 million in April, missing forecasts as mortgage rates climbed to 6.37%. Inventory improved, but prices hit a record for April, underscoring a housing market that is stabilizing at a weak level rather than breaking into a true recovery.
A packed U.S. data week will test whether inflation is still sticky or the economy is cooling in an orderly way. Producer prices, retail sales, jobless claims, Fed speeches, and industrial production could quickly shift rate expectations and market sentiment.
April payroll growth, low jobless claims and a stronger GDPNow estimate pointed to an economy still carrying momentum, while consumer sentiment sank to a record low and mortgage rates ticked higher. The split left the Fed stuck between resilient hard data and deeply pessimistic households.
U.S. consumer confidence fell to 48.2 in May, its weakest reading in this stretch, even as year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.5%. The mixed survey points to households still feeling squeezed, with softer spending momentum and little relief yet for the Federal Reserve.
The April jobs report showed a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, but the broader U-6 measure climbed to 8.2% as involuntary part-time work jumped. Nonfarm payrolls also rose more than expected, giving the Federal Reserve little reason to cut rates soon.
The Fed’s balance sheet barely rose to $6.709 trillion, but the bigger signal is a shift from shrinking assets to reserve management. With Treasury and mortgage holdings still dominant, the move points to liquidity maintenance rather than fresh stimulus, leaving rate expectations largely unchanged.
Mortgage rates rose for a second straight week, with the 30-year fixed climbing back to 6.37% and the 15-year reaching 5.72%. Higher Treasury yields and inflation worries are keeping borrowing costs elevated, even as inventory improves and new-home prices ease.
Fresh claims, ADP and JOLTS data show the U.S. job market is easing only gradually. Layoffs remain low, hiring improved, openings stayed elevated and quits rose, reinforcing a soft-landing view and reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon.
U.S. jobless claims rose less than expected, while continuing claims dropped to their lowest level since early 2024. The data suggests layoffs remain contained, the labor market is cooling rather than cracking, and the Federal Reserve can likely stay patient on rates.
The MBA’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.45%, its highest in a month, and applications fell 4.4% as buyers and refinancers pulled back. The latest data show how quickly housing demand weakens when borrowing costs move higher, even in a steadier spring market.
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