The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
171 articles
April private payrolls rose 109,000, topping forecasts and easing recession fears without reigniting inflation worries. Treasury yields fell as investors read the report as Fed-friendly, with wage growth cooling and the labor market still looking stable rather than overheated.
April’s ISM services report showed the U.S. economy still expanding, but demand weakened sharply and inflation stayed stubbornly high. New orders posted their biggest monthly drop in two years, while the prices index held near its highest level since 2022, complicating the Fed’s next move.
U.S. new home sales rose for a second straight month and topped forecasts, signaling buyers are still active despite high mortgage rates. But a sharp drop in building permits suggests builders are growing cautious, while lower prices and elevated inventory keep pressure on the housing market.
U.S. housing data showed a mixed picture as new home sales and housing starts beat forecasts, while existing sales and building permits weakened. Higher mortgage rates continue to squeeze affordability, leaving builders more resilient than the resale market and keeping price growth subdued.
March JOLTS showed a labor market cooling without cracking: job openings slipped, but hiring surged to the highest pace since May 2024. The mix supports the soft-landing case and gives the Federal Reserve little urgency to cut rates soon.
U.S. factory orders rose 1.5% in March, beating forecasts and signaling steadier manufacturing demand. The biggest boost came from computers and electronics, where orders hit a 24-year high on AI-related spending. Broader gains in machinery, metals and transport also reinforced the growth outlook.
U.S. factory activity is still expanding, but the latest data show a tougher mix beneath the headline. New orders improved and durable goods demand held up, yet industrial production slipped, hiring weakened, and ISM prices paid jumped to their highest level since April 2022.
Friday brings the April U.S. jobs report and the University of Michigan sentiment survey, a key test for markets weighing softer labor data against stubborn inflation fears. A crowded Fed speaker lineup could quickly reshape rate-cut expectations if payrolls disappoint or consumers show more inflation anxiety.
U.S. growth held up, but inflation stayed stubborn and layoffs remained scarce. Stronger-than-expected spending, a hot PCE reading, and a jump in ISM prices reinforced the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, even as markets briefly rallied on softer GDP and earnings support.
U.S. manufacturing stayed in expansion in April, but the report was a mixed bag: new orders improved while hiring weakened and input costs jumped sharply. ISM’s prices index hit its highest reading since April 2022, adding fresh inflation pressure and complicating the Fed’s path on rate cuts.
The Fed’s latest balance sheet report shows total assets essentially unchanged at $6.7 trillion, signaling a plateau in quantitative tightening. Reserve balances edged higher, while Treasury and MBS holdings keep the central bank’s duration footprint large as markets focus more on liquidity than the headline number.
Freddie Mac’s latest data shows the average 30-year mortgage rate ticking up to 6.30% after a three-week slide, but purchase demand is still running more than 20% above a year ago. Rates remain below last spring, helping keep buyers active despite affordability pressures.
Generate AI research on any ticker — grades, price targets, and full analysis in minutes.
Open the Generator