The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
171 articles
U.S. growth improved to 2.0% in Q1 2026, but the GDP price index jumped to 4.5%, signaling sticky inflation and dimming hopes for near-term Fed cuts. Stronger domestic demand helped offset the miss, while Treasury yields rose as markets priced a more hawkish outlook.
Weekly jobless claims fell to 189,000, the lowest level in decades by Bloomberg’s framing, while continuing claims also declined. The data points to a labor market that remains resilient, with layoffs scarce and the Federal Reserve facing less pressure to cut rates soon.
U.S. durable goods orders rebounded in March, but the standout was a 3.3% jump in core capital goods orders, the strongest since 2020. The data suggests business spending and manufacturing demand held up better than expected, supporting Treasury yields and the dollar.
MBA data showed 30-year mortgage rates edging up to 6.37%, enough to knock total applications down 1.6%. Refinance demand fell 4%, while purchase applications rose 2%, highlighting a housing market still supported by buyers even as borrowing costs keep refinancing on ice.
March U.S. housing starts rose more than expected, but building permits fell sharply, hinting that future construction may cool. Single-family starts hit a 13-month high, yet weaker permits, high mortgage rates, and sticky costs suggest the housing market is active but still under pressure.
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, but a split vote and firmer inflation language sent a hawkish signal to markets. Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and traders quickly pushed back expectations for rate cuts as policymakers emphasized solid growth and sticky inflation.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 3 in April, topping expectations and signaling that factory activity is stabilizing rather than sliding. New orders strengthened and employment improved, but shipments stayed weak, keeping the report in modest recovery territory instead of pointing to a true manufacturing boom.
U.S. consumer confidence rose more than expected in April, helped by stronger labor-market views and improving expectations. But households remained uneasy about gasoline, inflation, and war-related price shocks, leaving the report supportive for growth without changing the broader caution around recession risk or Fed policy.
February Case-Shiller data showed a monthly beat in U.S. home prices, but annual growth slowed and more than half of major metros posted declines. Elevated mortgage rates and tight affordability continue to cap demand, while real home prices remain negative as inflation outpaces gains.
Dallas Fed manufacturing sentiment slipped into contraction in April, but production, new orders and shipments all improved. The bigger surprise was inflation pressure: finished goods and raw materials prices climbed sharply, leaving the report softer on growth but sticky on prices and supportive of a Fed hold.
A packed U.S. data week could reset expectations for stocks, bonds and rate cuts. The Fed press conference, Q1 GDP, personal spending, PCE inflation and labor-cost data will help determine whether the economy is simply cooling or slipping into a slower-growth, sticky-inflation backdrop.
March unemployment dipped to 4.3% and jobless claims stayed low, but JOLTS data showed fewer openings and weaker quits. The latest labor reports point to a softer hiring backdrop and slower re-employment, yet layoffs remain contained enough to keep the Fed on hold.
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