The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
U.S. existing-home sales fell to a 14-month low in August as mortgage rates climbed and affordability stayed strained. Inventory improved and gave buyers more leverage, but higher prices and borrowing costs kept transactions weak, pressuring homebuilder stocks and adding a cautious note for Fed watchers.
U.S. jobless claims barely changed last week, with initial claims at 206,000 and continuing claims at 1.774 million. The data point to a labor market with few layoffs but weaker rehiring, reinforcing recession resilience while keeping the Federal Reserve focused on inflation rather than rate cuts.
U.S. producer prices accelerated in August, with headline PPI rising 5.4% year over year as diesel and raw-material costs spread through the supply chain. The hotter inflation reading pushed Treasury yields higher, pressured stocks, and lifted odds of a September Fed rate hike.
The MBA 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.85%, its highest level since June 2025, while applications fell 2.7% and refinancing dropped 6%. Rising Treasury yields, inflation worries and higher oil prices are keeping housing under pressure as borrowers shift toward adjustable-rate loans.
Small-business confidence cooled in August as the NFIB Optimism Index fell to 98.7, below forecasts but still above its long-run average. Weaker sales and softer expectations offset easing labor-cost pressure, leaving the report as a slowdown signal rather than a sign of contraction.
August payrolls rose 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%, signaling a labor market that remains resilient even as hiring cools. Softer ADP growth and fewer quits point to slowing momentum, while Treasury yields climbed and traders boosted odds of a September Fed rate hike.
A packed September economic calendar puts inflation, labor and housing in focus just days before the Federal Reserve meets. August CPI is the headline event, with PPI, jobless claims, existing home sales and consumer sentiment offering key clues on whether inflation is cooling and the labor market is softening.
U.S. housing data point to a broad slowdown as July home sales, contract signings and housing starts all weakened under mortgage rates near 7%. Prices flattened month to month, but permits held up and annual gains remained positive, suggesting a soft patch rather than a housing bust.
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report, firm services activity and sticky inflation signals pushed Treasury yields higher and revived September hike odds. Markets sold off as investors recalibrated the Fed outlook, even after earlier weak payroll data and dovish comments from Christopher Waller.
U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, far above forecasts, while unemployment held at 4.1% and private payrolls strengthened. The hotter-than-expected report lifted Treasury yields, pressured stocks, and pushed markets to price a greater chance of a September Fed rate hike.
U.S. mortgage rates climbed again, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.71% and the 15-year to 6.04%. Higher Treasury yields and lingering inflation concerns are keeping housing affordability under pressure, even as purchase demand holds up better than expected.
The ISM Services PMI jumped to 55.4 in August, with new orders and business activity hitting multiyear highs. But the prices index surged to 72.6 while employment stayed in contraction, sharpening inflation concerns and keeping Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations in focus.
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