The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.66%, its highest level in a year, after four straight weekly gains. The rise is squeezing affordability, cooling applications and adding pressure to a housing market already struggling with weak demand.
The latest GDP report showed the U.S. economy still expanding, but at a weaker 1.5% annualized pace while the GDP price index surged to 6.3%. Strong consumer spending and domestic demand helped offset trade drag, but the hotter inflation reading strengthens the case for a cautious Fed.
Initial jobless claims climbed to 197,000, yet continuing claims fell and both measures beat forecasts. The mixed report points to a cooling but resilient US labor market, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative and giving the Federal Reserve little urgency to cut rates.
The MBA 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.76%, extending a steady July rise that keeps affordability under pressure. Even so, mortgage and purchase applications are still rising, suggesting buyers remain active but highly rate-sensitive as housing stays in a slow-growth pattern.
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged, signaling little urgency to cut while inflation remains above target and the economy holds up. Strong labor data, resilient activity and still-high borrowing costs point to a slower easing path ahead.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 5 in July, staying positive for a fourth straight month but falling short of expectations. Shipments and employment improved, while new orders softened and factory price growth eased, signaling modest regional expansion rather than a manufacturing rebound.
US consumer confidence slipped in July, missing expectations as higher gasoline prices, grocery costs and softer labor-market views weighed on households. The decline points to more cautious spending ahead, though steady jobs data and recent retail gains suggest consumers are slowing, not collapsing.
Case-Shiller data showed US home prices rose more than expected in May, with annual gains accelerating to 1.6%. But high mortgage rates, weak affordability and sharp regional splits suggest the market is stabilizing rather than rebounding, while the surprise may slightly support a cautious Fed stance.
US manufacturing sent a mixed signal as durable goods orders rose just 0.3%, far below expectations, even as the Dallas Fed index moved back into positive territory. Stronger core capital orders and improving new orders suggest business investment is holding up, but growth remains uneven.
A packed week of Fed policy, GDP, PCE inflation, jobless claims and wage data will show whether U.S. growth is holding up as price pressures and labor costs keep the central bank cautious. Markets are watching for clues on rates, inflation and the path ahead.
US data painted a split picture: initial jobless claims fell to 187,000, the lowest since 1969, while the July PMI showed stronger growth and hotter price pressures. Rising Treasury and mortgage rates tightened conditions, keeping the market focused on a soft landing with a stubborn inflation problem.
U.S. business activity accelerated more than expected in July, with S&P Global’s composite PMI rising to an eight-month high. Services led the gain, but manufacturing cooled and inflation pressures intensified, reinforcing a hawkish Fed outlook and keeping rate-cut hopes in check.
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