The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
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A packed U.S. data week could reset expectations for stocks, bonds and rate cuts. The Fed press conference, Q1 GDP, personal spending, PCE inflation and labor-cost data will help determine whether the economy is simply cooling or slipping into a slower-growth, sticky-inflation backdrop.
March unemployment dipped to 4.3% and jobless claims stayed low, but JOLTS data showed fewer openings and weaker quits. The latest labor reports point to a softer hiring backdrop and slower re-employment, yet layoffs remain contained enough to keep the Fed on hold.
U.S. growth held up better than expected as March retail sales jumped 1.7% and business activity returned to expansion. But inflation pressures stayed sticky, with prices charged rising at the fastest pace since July 2022, reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate narrative.
A packed week of retail sales, housing data, jobless claims and Fed remarks will help traders judge whether the U.S. economy is slowing just enough to support rate cuts or staying firm enough to keep policymakers cautious. The consumer and housing signals will be especially important.
Initial jobless claims dropped more than expected, signaling layoffs remain contained, but continuing claims rose, showing rehiring is still sluggish. The mixed report supports a soft-landing view and likely keeps the Fed on hold as the labor market cools gradually rather than cracks.
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