AXIA Energia S.A.

AXIA Energia reported EBITDA of BRL 6.7 billion, up 21.5% year over year, driven mainly by generation, while transmission was stable and costs were controlled. Investments were close to BRL 3 billion in the quarter, about 50% higher year over year. The company said ACL plus MCP unit generation margin was BRL 96 versus BRL 73 in the same quarter last year. It also cited a projected NAL CapEx of BRL 668 million and RAP of BRL 50 million from the latest transmission auction, backlog of slightly more than BRL 15 billion, and RAP of BRL 2 billion a year. On capital returns, management approved BRL 3.7 billion this quarter, taking year-to-date shareholder returns to BRL 7.7 billion, including BRL 4 billion approved in the first quarter and a new BRL 2 billion redemption announced this morning. For guidance, management said reinforcement and improvement investments are expected to close at around BRL 5 billion to BRL 5.5 billion in 2026. Management also said the second half of the year includes a BRL 2 billion redemption and that future redemptions/dividends will depend on share price and allocation decisions.

Ivan Monteiro framed the quarter as part of a broader de-risking and modernization effort after privatization, emphasizing higher investments, operational resilience, lower contingencies, and improved margin capture from energy trading and portfolio management. He said the company is using a more sophisticated quarterly capital allocation process and that the business is now better positioned to return cash while continuing to invest. His tone was confident and disciplined, with repeated emphasis on resilience, governance, and long-term value creation.

Eduardo Haiama said EBITDA was BRL 6.7 billion, up 21.5%, and linked the result mainly to generation performance, stable transmission, and disciplined costs. He noted investments of close to BRL 3 billion in the quarter, up 50% year over year, and pointed to stronger unit margins in generation, with ACL plus MCP at BRL 96 versus BRL 73 last year. He also highlighted proceeds from portfolio actions, including close to BRL 1 billion from uncrossing minority stakes, BRL 150 million from four small transmission lines, and BRL 256 million from Três Irmãos, while saying the BRL 7.7 billion of year-to-date shareholder returns will be executed over coming months. On capital structure and payouts, he said dividends should remain at a mandatory minimum of 25%, with the rest preferably via redemptions unless the share price becomes irrationally elevated.

Analysts focused on whether reinforcement and improvement spending is justified by returns or mainly by operational risk reduction. Management answered that these are mandatory, long-term resilience investments with adequate regulated returns and that ANEEL’s framework has historically supported capital allocation across cycles. Questions also centered on the impact of El Niño and energy prices; management said southern rainfall is pressuring near-term prices, especially in July through September, with recovery expected from October, while the North and Northeast could see more volatility if dry conditions persist. On the BRL 2 billion PNC redemption, management said it is a larger-scale test after the smaller BRL 30 million run, meant to confirm execution with tens of thousands of shareholders before normalizing the process.