Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás

The transcript did not provide a full income statement with reported revenue, EPS, or gross margin figures. Management said revenue declined in both the regulated and captive/business segments, with transmission revenue improving after the 2024/2025 tariff review effect rolled off and generation revenue still affected by last year’s Tucuruí contract extension. EBITDA saw only a slight decrease on the regulated side because thermal divestments were offset by PMSO reduction and higher transmission revenue, while reported net income was much smaller than Q3 last year due to a provision for the nuclear contract and prior-year transmission tariff review benefits. For guidance, management said 2026 prices are generally expected to be around 240 or a little above, short-term price swings should not matter much for 2026, and the company expects to remain active in upcoming transmission, capacity, and battery-related opportunities. It also said the current investment cycle peaks in 2026 and ends in 2027, after which deleveraging should accelerate.

Ivan Monteiro framed the quarter as evidence that AXIA’s turnaround plan is working: simplifying the structure, reducing risk, and turning that into shareholder returns. He emphasized that the company is now focused on customers, operational efficiency, auctions, and disciplined capital allocation, with a clear shift away from legacy issues inherited from the pre-privatization period. His tone was confident and constructive, especially on the company’s ability to manage risk and grow through selective investments.

Eduardo Haiama focused on how legacy items distorted the quarter’s reported figures and on the capital-allocation implications of recent transactions. He said revenue fell in regulated and captive segments, EBITDA only softened slightly because thermal divestments were offset by PMSO reductions and transmission gains, and net income was materially lower year over year because of a nuclear-related provision and the prior-year tariff-review benefit. He highlighted BRL 535 million from the Eletronuclear sale, release of guarantees and debentures tied to Angra 1 totaling BRL 2.4 billion, the BRL 247 million Tijoa acquisition, and the BRL 4.3 billion additional dividend; he also said there is no fixed minimum cash target, though he would not go below BRL 10 billion and suggested BRL 20 billion to BRL 30 billion may be appropriate.

Analysts focused on 2026 price resilience, the next steps after derisking, dividend frequency, leverage, minimum cash, the logic of the capital-allocation methodology, and the company’s strategy in transmission, capacity, and storage auctions. Management said its dividend approach does not assume unsold assets will be sold, but instead uses only signed contracts and conservative assumptions; it also said dividend payments are not guaranteed quarterly and depend on the methodology and future events. On auctions, management said transmission remains the main focus, capacity auctions are attractive, and batteries are promising but still early in Brazil because regulation and intraday market mechanisms are not yet in place. On leverage, management said 2026 leverage should not be very different from 2025 because of the current investment cycle, and then the company should delever more meaningfully afterward.