Ecopetrol S.A.

Ecopetrol Group reported Q2 2026 revenue of COP 4.2 trillion, EBITDA of COP 17.7 trillion, and net income of COP 6.1 trillion. Management said revenue increased 35% year over year, EBITDA rose 59%, and net income increased 235%; EBITDA margin was 44%, about 6 percentage points higher than a year ago. Refining throughput reached a record 439,000 barrels per day, up 6% year over year, and the refining gross margin was USD 29.8 per barrel versus USD 12.5 per barrel in Q2 2025; Cartagena posted a record USD 31.6 per barrel. Production was 706,000 boe/d in the quarter and 715,000 boe/d in 1H26. On the balance sheet and cash flow side, gross debt-to-EBITDA was 2.0x at group level and 1.3x excluding ISA debt, cash was COP 11.3 trillion, operating cash flow was COP 14.1 trillion in 1H26, and free cash flow was COP 6 trillion. Organic investments were USD 2.9 billion as of June. For guidance, management kept full-year production guidance at 730,000-740,000 boe/d and said transport and refining volumes should remain in line with 2026 expectations; the FEPC receivable could end 2026 at COP 8 trillion to COP 12 trillion, and management also indicated 2027 FEPC accumulation may be COP 1 trillion to COP 3 trillion based on its assumptions.

The acting CEO framed the quarter as evidence that Ecopetrol can convert favorable market conditions into strong results through its integrated model, commercial strategy, and disciplined execution. He highlighted three main drivers: stronger pricing, better crude differentials, and especially refining, which he described as one of the group’s main value drivers. Strategically, he emphasized exploration success, offshore gas potential, self-generation and renewable projects, and the continued focus on traditional businesses while balancing capital discipline and environmental requirements.

The CFO emphasized that EBITDA reached COP 17.7 trillion with a 44% margin, supported by record refining margins and higher transportation volumes. He said the group had COP 11.3 trillion of cash, COP 14.1 trillion of operating cash flow in 1H26, COP 8.4 trillion of investing cash outflows, and COP 6 trillion of free cash flow; he also noted COP 6 trillion of dividend payments. On capital allocation, he said USD 2.9 billion of organic investments were executed in line with plan, with 71% in Colombia and 63% of CapEx in hydrocarbons. He also pointed to COP 2.6 trillion of efficiency gains in 1H26 and explained that the FEPC balance was COP 8 trillion as of June, with year-end expectations of COP 8 trillion to COP 12 trillion depending on Brent, FX, and crack spreads.

Analysts pressed management on production, FEPC collections, the impact of the new Colombian government, Permian, Brava financing, and refining margins. Management said the production shortfall was driven mainly by the 76-day blockade and power disruptions, but it remained comfortable with the 730,000-740,000 boe/d full-year target and saw late-June production near 730,000 boe/d. On FEPC, management said collections have been made on time, that the balance at year-end depends on Brent, FX, and product crack spreads, and that the company expects the new government to set policy direction on fuel pricing and subsidy-gap reduction; on Brava, it said the deal would be financed with a bridge loan and then refinanced before year-end, with consolidation expected in Q3 2026 if the tender closes successfully.