YPF Sociedad Anónima

YPF reported second-quarter revenue of about $6.6 billion, up 33% sequentially and 42% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.8 billion, up 76% sequentially and 2.5x year over year, with adjusted EBITDA margin at 43%. Operating result was a record $1.8 billion and net result was $1.2 billion. Free cash flow reached $824 million, liquidity ended at nearly $2.5 billion, and net leverage declined to 1.1x. On operations, shale oil production was 213,000 barrels per day, up 4% sequentially and 47% year over year, and refinery processing averaged 351,000 barrels per day. For full year 2026, management raised adjusted EBITDA guidance to around $8 billion from about $6 billion previously, assuming Brent of about $82 per barrel for the year and $75 per barrel in the second half. CapEx guidance was raised about 5% to $5.8 billion-$6.2 billion, with around 70% allocated to shale, and management expects to end 2026 with positive free cash flow of around $2 billion and net leverage near 1x.

Horacio Marin framed the quarter as a landmark period in YPF’s transformation under the 4x4 plan, emphasizing shale growth, asset replacement, cost control, capital discipline, and operational efficiency. He said YPF is becoming a more profitable, resilient, export-oriented integrated shale company, and repeatedly pointed to Vaca Muerta and Loma La Lata Oil as core long-term value drivers. His tone was highly confident, especially on the company’s ability to keep scaling production, exports, and project execution.

Pedro Kearney highlighted that the quarter combined record earnings, margins, and cash generation with a stronger balance sheet. He cited revenue of about $6.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion, free cash flow of $824 million, and liquidity of nearly $2.5 billion, noting that capex of over $1.3 billion was comfortably funded. He also walked through liability management actions, including a $122 million local bond at 5.5%, the amendment of a $450 million export prefunding facility, about $220 million of local bond and trade facility prepayments, and an additional $170 million bond reopening in August to repurchase a $140 million bond due in February 2027.

Analysts focused on whether YPF can sustain the shale production ramp and finish 2026 at the targeted 250,000 barrels per day exit rate, with Horacio Marin saying the company has rigs secured, has finished drilling, and mainly needs to fracture wells and bring La Angostura Sur’s PTC online in September. Questions also centered on evacuation capacity and the VMOS project; management said the monobuoy vessel is moving through the Strait of Hormuz and that YPF plans to use available capacity for refineries and exports. On Argentina LNG, management said the main technical, regulatory, and partnership steps are largely in place and that it is aiming for FID by year-end or in Q4. Analysts also pressed on downstream pricing and margins; Marin said YPF uses international-price-linked micro pricing and does not expect margins to fall back to $12-$14 per barrel given refining efficiency and logistics improvements.