Maxeon Solar Technologies, Ltd.

Q4 2023 revenue was $229 million, roughly flat sequentially and inside guidance; Q1 2024 revenue was $187 million, down 18% from Q4. Q4 shipments were 653 MW and Q1 shipments were 488 MW, down 25% sequentially and 37% year over year. Non-GAAP gross loss was $10 million in Q4 and $13 million in Q1; GAAP gross loss was $34 million in Q4 and $15 million in Q1. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $38 million in Q4 and negative $39 million in Q1, while 2023 adjusted EBITDA was $4 million versus negative $109 million in 2022. Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments were $197 million at Q4 end and $105 million at the end of Q1. For 2024, Maxeon guided to revenue of $640 million to $800 million, adjusted EBITDA of negative $110 million to negative $160 million, Q2 revenue of $160 million to $200 million, Q2 shipments of 520 MW to 600 MW, and Q2 adjusted EBITDA of negative $31 million to negative $51 million.

Bill Mulligan framed the quarter as the result of a "perfect storm" of market dislocation, customer pushouts, and liquidity stress, and said the TZE financing was the only viable way to stabilize the balance sheet. He emphasized that the company is still executing its transformation, including the Malaysia cell shutdown, the Maxeon 7 retrofit, a stronger US dealer channel, and domestic manufacturing plans in Albuquerque. His tone was cautious but determined, repeatedly saying the company expects to return to profitability early in 2025 and that the new capital should let management focus on the turnaround.

Kai Strohbecke focused on the mechanics of the financial decline and the funding plan. He cited the Q4/Q1 cash drain from prepayment amortization, noting about $150 million of utility-scale prepayment amortization across the two quarters and cash falling to $105 million in Q1, while also pointing to inventory reductions from $386 million to $309 million in Q4 and to $272 million in Q1. He said the company expects cash to exceed $100 million once TZE’s equity funds, and that 2024 capital expenditures should be $70 million to $100 million after $67 million in 2023. He also said gross margins should improve through the rest of 2024 and into 2025, despite a planned ~$20 million non-cash inventory write-down in Q2.

Analysts focused heavily on the DOE loan guarantee, the project delays/cancellations, the post-recapitalization share count, tariffs, and the path to positive EBITDA. Management said the DOE application for Albuquerque remains "advanced and live," but acknowledged the new TZE majority ownership complicates the process and may require alternative financing if needed. On customer delays, Peter Aschenbrenner said the Origis contract was 1.2 GW and that Maxeon terminated it for cause and is seeking damages; on tariffs, he said issues like the 201 bifacial exclusion and new AD/CVD actions are country-specific and that preliminary decisions could come in late Q3. On EBITDA, management pointed to rebuilding the US DG channel, newer products like Maxeon 7 and Performance Line 7, and better utility-scale pricing/backlog as the main drivers for a 2025 return to profitability.