Origin Energy Limited

Origin reported statutory profit of $1.574 billion, underlying profit of $1.159 billion, and underlying EBITDA of $3.22 billion for FY26. Energy Markets EBITDA was $1,701 million, up 21% and at the upper end of guidance; Integrated Gas EBITDA was $1,620 million; and Origin’s share of Octopus Energy/Kraken EBITDA was a loss of $8 million, improving by $80 million from FY25. Adjusted free cash flow rose by more than $700 million to over $2 billion, cash from operating activities was $1.9 billion, and adjusted net debt to adjusted underlying EBITDA was 1.6x. The Board declared a $0.30 fully franked final dividend, taking FY26 distributions to $0.60 fully franked. Looking ahead, FY27 Energy Markets EBITDA guidance is $1.55 billion to $1.85 billion; FY27 APLNG production guidance is 625 to 670 petajoules, with CapEx and OpEx guidance excluding purchases of $3 billion to $3.3 billion; Octopus U.K. retail EBITDA per customer guidance is GBP 25 to GBP 50; and Kraken revenue is expected to grow greater than 20%.

Frank Calabria framed FY26 as a “good result” built on three pillars: delivering what the company said it would, strengthening cash generation, and investing through the transition. He emphasized that Origin’s portfolio now combines strong cash-generating Australian assets with two independent global growth businesses after the Octopus/Kraken separation. His tone was constructive but measured, with clear attention to execution, capital discipline, and adapting to changing market conditions such as batteries, demand growth, and gas policy.

Tony Lucas highlighted strong operating performance and cash conversion, saying Group EBITDA was $3.2 billion and Energy Markets EBITDA rose 21% to $1.7 billion. He pointed to cash from operating activities of $1.9 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $2.1 billion, and a 1.6x net debt to EBITDA ratio, noting that strong cash flow and APLNG dividends more than covered CapEx and shareholder payouts. He also said FY27 should see lower CapEx as the battery program winds down, lower LNG trading gains, and a move toward the lower end of the company’s target leverage range.

Analysts focused on dividend conservatism, the outlook for Energy Markets margins, Eraring’s possible life extension, retail regulation, gas reservation policy, and Kraken’s path to IPO. Management said the dividend was held steady because the board does not want to swing cents per share too much, and because some working capital unwind is expected next year. On Eraring, management reiterated the current plan remains an April 2029 exit and said no major overhaul is planned, though they may need to make a forward-looking decision with roughly an 18-month lead time. On gas and retail, management said the domestic gas book is relatively resilient in the short term, wants a well-designed gas reservation regime that avoids annual discretion, and said retail margins should be supported by acquisition quality, multi-product offerings, and lower costs to serve.