Pembina Pipeline Corporation

Pembina reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1.064 billion, an increase of $51 million or 5% versus Q2 2025. Earnings were $512 million, up 23% year over year, and adjusted earnings were $415 million, up 10% year over year. Total volumes in Pipelines and Facilities were 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 3% year over year. The company affirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $4.35 billion to $4.55 billion and said it is trending toward the midpoint. Management said Q3 adjusted EBITDA should be lower than Q2 due to seasonality, spending timing and one-time items, with a stronger Q4 expected; they also said the lower and upper ends of guidance are primarily driven by commodity prices, marketing contributions, interruptible volumes, FX, and incentive compensation costs.

Scott Burrows framed the quarter as evidence that Pembina’s 3C strategy is working across capture, connect, and catalyze. He emphasized execution on new assets and projects, including RFS IV entering service, Cedar LNG construction progress toward late-2028 first exports, the proposed West Coast oil pipeline, Heartland Extraction Plant, and Greenlight’s final investment decision. His tone was confident and upbeat, repeatedly stressing long-term growth visibility through 2030 and into the next decade.

Cameron Goldade focused on the quarter’s financial drivers and the guidance bridge. He said the 5% EBITDA increase year over year reflected strong Pipelines and Facilities performance plus better marketing results, partly offset by the Alliance new toll structure and revenue-sharing mechanism. He pointed to seasonality in NGL frac spreads, higher second-half maintenance and integrity spending, lower second-half Cochin contribution, and Alliance seasonality as reasons for a stronger Q4 versus Q3; he also noted Pembina has hedged about 90% of third-quarter NGL frac spread exposure and 40% in Q4. On capital allocation, he reiterated the long-standing leverage guardrail of 3.5x to 4.25x senior debt to EBITDA and said growth is still being funded within free cash flow, with potential flexibility only if the business risk profile improves and there is a clear path back toward the middle of the target range.

Analysts pressed management on how incremental Western Canadian oil egress would affect condensate demand, and management said the basin would likely need about 300,000 barrels per day of incremental condensate for 1 million barrels per day of new oil egress, with most of that supply expected to come from the WCSB. They also asked about Greenlight’s potential to scale, and management said customer interest remains high, clustering is plausible, and the company is moving quickly on adjacent land and future phases. Other notable questions covered whether future gas-to-power projects would resemble Greenlight’s fixed-fee, low-risk structure, whether Pembina would expand into merchant power or an IPP model (management said no), and what the milestones are for the West Coast oil pipeline, where management cited an October 1 designation target, definitive agreements, and regulatory applications ahead of FID.