The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
171 articles
Markets face a pivotal week as the ISM services report, Fed minutes, and speeches from top policymakers test the soft-landing narrative. Sticky service-sector prices, mixed labor data, and easing but still elevated mortgage rates could shape expectations for the next policy move.
A weak June jobs report, softer GDP tracking, and easing manufacturing price pressures pushed investors away from another near-term Fed hike. Treasury yields fell, stocks firmed early, and the dollar weakened as markets read the data as slower growth without a full labor-market breakdown.
U.S. manufacturing remains in expansion, but momentum has cooled. New data show softer PMI readings, weaker factory orders, and slower industrial production, while hiring stays below growth territory and input costs remain elevated despite easing from recent highs.
U.S. factory orders slipped in May, but the decline was driven mainly by volatile aircraft bookings. Ex-transportation orders rose solidly, and core business equipment demand improved, suggesting manufacturing remains uneven but still expanding despite the weak headline.
The Fed’s latest balance sheet update shows assets nearly unchanged at $6.725 trillion, signaling abundant liquidity and a pause in aggressive shrinkage. The small weekly decline points more to stable funding conditions and reserve management than to any fresh tightening shock or shift in the near-term rate outlook.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.43%, its lowest level in seven weeks, offering a small boost to affordability and purchase demand. But borrowing costs remain high enough to keep the housing market under pressure, with prices and monthly payments still limiting many buyers.
June’s U.S. jobs report showed hiring cooling fast, with payrolls rising just 57,000, while layoffs remained subdued. The 4.2% unemployment rate and low claims eased recession fears and pushed markets to price in a more dovish Federal Reserve stance.
U.S. mortgage rates slipped for a second straight week, with the MBA 30-year rate falling to 6.57%. The small decline nudged purchase applications higher, but borrowing costs remain elevated enough to keep affordability under pressure and limit any meaningful housing rebound.
U.S. factory activity cooled in June but remained in expansion territory, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 53.3. New orders stayed positive, while prices paid eased from May’s spike yet remained historically high, keeping inflation concerns and higher-for-longer Fed expectations in focus.
U.S. private payrolls rose 98,000 in June, missing forecasts and signaling a cooler hiring pace. But with wages still growing and layoffs easing, the report points to an orderly slowdown rather than a labor market collapse, keeping the Fed on a cautious hold path.
U.S. consumer confidence edged higher in June, but the details were weaker than the headline suggests. The index missed forecasts as labor-market sentiment deteriorated, with more consumers saying jobs are hard to get. Lower gas prices helped, but households still appear cautious.
U.S. home prices rose more than expected in April, but the housing market remains stuck in low gear. Inflation is outpacing gains, mortgage rates are still near 6.5%, and regional splits are widening, leaving national prices looking firmer on the surface than they do underneath.
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