The economy and the market: weekly previews, recaps, monthly summaries, and major macro events as they land.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in July, below expectations, as manufacturing momentum cooled and auto output fell. Durable goods and business equipment still posted gains, while capacity utilization stayed subdued, reinforcing a steady-but-not-overheating backdrop for the Federal Reserve.
U.S. housing data sent mixed signals in July: starts fell sharply, pending home sales weakened, and mortgage rates stayed elevated, but building permits climbed. The split suggests builders still have future projects in the pipeline even as affordability and financing costs continue to cool demand.
New York manufacturing accelerated sharply in August, with the Empire State index jumping to 20.6 and topping expectations by a wide margin. Stronger orders, shipments, and hiring point to resilient factory momentum, while elevated price readings keep inflation concerns in focus for the Federal Reserve.
The NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 35, topping forecasts by 2 points, but builder confidence remains stuck below 40 for a 15th straight month. High mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic and rising price cuts show the housing market is still under pressure.
A packed US economic calendar will test whether growth is holding up, housing can withstand high borrowing costs, and the Fed remains hawkish. Key releases include manufacturing surveys, jobless claims, mortgage rates, housing data, and FOMC minutes after a divided July policy meeting.
A softer CPI and flat PPI gave markets relief, but July retail sales fell sharply and consumer sentiment weakened. Treasury yields eased and stocks briefly rallied, yet firmer inflation expectations and cooling spending left the Federal Reserve with room to wait, not enough to declare victory.
U.S. consumer spending lost momentum in July, with retail sales falling 0.6% and sentiment dropping in August. Inflation is easing only gradually, leaving households squeezed by still-elevated prices, higher borrowing costs and a softer labor backdrop.
The University of Michigan’s August survey showed consumer sentiment sliding to 51.0, well below forecasts, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.3%. The mixed readout points to softer household demand, sticky price worries and a cautious Federal Reserve backdrop.
July retail sales fell 0.6%, the sharpest monthly drop since May 2025, as core measures also missed forecasts. Tax refunds and June promotions likely pulled demand forward, but the broad pullback still points to a cooling consumer and adds pressure on third-quarter growth and Fed policy.
The Fed’s balance sheet edged up to $6.76T, but the move looks like routine reserve management rather than fresh stimulus. With inflation easing, unemployment at 4.1%, and rates unchanged, the central bank appears focused on keeping markets orderly, not signaling a major policy shift.
U.S. mortgage rates eased for the first time in six weeks, with the 30-year fixed average slipping to 6.67% and the 15-year rate to 5.96%. The drop offers some relief for buyers, but borrowing costs remain above year-ago levels and housing affordability is still strained.
Initial jobless claims climbed above forecasts, hinting at a softer labor market, but continuing claims fell, easing recession fears. The mixed report suggests cooling rather than cracking, giving the Federal Reserve room to stay patient while inflation trends lower and layoffs remain historically contained.
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