BPER Banca S.p.A.

BPER reported consolidated total revenues of EUR 6.6 billion and adjusted net profit of EUR 2.1 billion. On a like-for-like basis, total revenues were over EUR 5.7 billion and adjusted net profit was almost EUR 1.8 billion, up by almost 27% over the last 12 months. The consolidated cost-to-income ratio was 45.7% versus 47.2% like-for-like, cost of risk was 24 bps consolidated and 34 bps like-for-like, ROTE was 20%, and CET1 was 14.8%. Net interest income was down 3.2% in 2025, but up 3.5% in Q4; net commission income rose 5% in 2025. For 2026, management said BPER expects to continue the trajectory on a like-for-like basis, confirmed that post-integration CET1 should remain above 14.5%, and said the next business plan update will provide fuller guidance, including BPSO.

The CEO framed 2025 as a record year built on strong commercial execution during a heavy integration period, saying the combined group delivered outstanding results despite rate cuts and geopolitical headwinds. He emphasized that BPER has become a larger domestic player with an 11% market share versus 8% in 2023 and that the BPSO merger is an accelerator of the existing B:Dynamic | Full Value 2027 plan. His tone was confident but cautious: he repeatedly said the company is ahead of plan, but full 2026 guidance will wait until the integration is complete and the business plan is updated.

The CFO focused on the quality of earnings, capital, and balance-sheet strength. He highlighted 45.7% consolidated cost-to-income, 24 bps consolidated cost of risk, 14.8% CET1, EUR 2.3 billion of organic capital generation, LCR of 172%, NSFR of 134%, and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 76.3%. He also clarified that integration costs of about EUR 400 million are already identified, 72% had been booked in Q4 2025, and the remaining portion will be booked in 2026; he added that the PPA will create a mid-double-digit annual negative P&L effect for the next years and that 2026 tax rate guidance is around 33% to 34%.

Analysts pressed management on 2026 top-line growth, dividend policy, the TRS/derivative, NII sustainability, capital after the BPSO merger, and asset-quality trends. Management said it expects BPER to continue growing in 2026 on a like-for-like basis, keeps a 75% payout ratio as the base case but could revise it higher if organic capital generation remains strong, and that the derivative is a 3-year position they do not plan to expand or close. On NII, management said some Q4 benefit was noncommercial and partly one-off, but expects improvement from repricing and lower funding costs; on credit quality, it said it does not see structural deterioration, with 2025 default rate around 1% and conservative underwriting still intact.