Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.

Intesa reported first-half 2026 net income of EUR 5.6 billion, with EUR 2.8 billion in Q2; management described both as record levels. Annualized ROE was 20%, ROTE was 25%, and EPS increased 9% year over year. Net income was said to be up 6% year over year in the first half, while Q2 net income was up 7% year over year. Revenue components were broadly strong, with all-time high commissions and insurance income, and customer financial assets above EUR 1.5 trillion. The cost/income ratio was 35.9%, operating costs were down 1% year over year, and annualized cost of risk was 20 bps. Capital was described as solid, with a CET1 ratio of 13.1% and another mention of more than 13.8% including DTA absorption. Guidance was upgraded to more than EUR 10 billion of 2026 net income and well above EUR 15 billion of 2026 net interest income. Management said 2026 shareholder returns should total EUR 9.4 billion through dividends and buybacks, including a EUR 3.8 billion interim dividend in November.

Carlo Messina framed the quarter as evidence that the group is operating from a position of strength, with resilient earnings, strong asset quality, and a low-risk, capital-rich business model. He emphasized that the bank is executing its business plan at full speed, with technology investment, cost discipline, and wealth-management-driven growth supporting results. He was notably confident on the MPS transaction, saying it is strategically aligned, creates no integration risk, and would further accelerate the plan and value creation.

The CFO commentary was mostly embedded in the prepared remarks and the Q&A, with the key financial message being that earnings quality remains high and guidance is conservative. Management highlighted a CET1 ratio of 13.1% in the prepared remarks and said capital could remain in the 14% range for the MPS transaction, or above 14.5% excluding MPS DTAs. Luca Bocca said forward rates remain 50 to 70 bps above the business-plan assumption, implying an additional EUR 500 million to EUR 600 million positive contribution to 2029 NII, and another EUR 500 million from the replicating portfolio in 2027 plus EUR 300 million in 2028/2029. Management also said the cost base has further upside from synergies, tech migration, and potential managerial actions, but kept the official outlook conservative.

Analysts focused on loan growth, NII, fee seasonality, costs, capital, trading income, and the mechanics of the MPS/Danish Compromise setup. Management said loan growth should remain positive and roughly at the current run rate, while NII should increase meaningfully in the second half, with Q4 stronger than Q3 and a better starting point for 2027. On fees, Messina said the weaker commercial banking fee trend was seasonal and should recover, peaking in Q4. On trading, he said the recent strength is not a run-rate expectation. On capital and MPS, he said the group aims to stay above 13% CET1 during 2026 and believes the Danish Compromise should apply automatically after moving the insurance stake, though final figures will depend on transaction outcomes.