The J. M. Smucker Company

Management did not provide a full Q1 revenue or EPS figure in this Q&A session, but it did say Q1 included an $0.84 tariff refund benefit. On coffee, management said first-quarter volumes were strong, with Folgers growing and Bustelo up 23%, while coffee full-year volume is still expected to decline by low single digits. For the full year, Tucker Marshall said underlying COGS inflation is mid-single-digit after isolating green coffee tariffs and refunds, with pressure from freight, some commodities and other ingredients. On guidance, the company said Uncrustables total company/total venture growth is now expected to be high single digits, Sweet Baked Snacks is expected to be down low single digits for the full year, and Q2 should be broadly in line with the company’s revised annual outlook as coffee pricing/actions normalize and other businesses follow expected seasonality.

Mark Smucker struck a confident but measured tone, repeatedly emphasizing prudence where visibility is weaker. He said coffee demand has held up better than expected in the quarter, but the company is not assuming sustained deflation or taking a list-price cut until key thresholds are met. He also highlighted continued investment behind priority brands and said the company is focused on where it can win, with Uncrustables, Bustelo, dog snacks and core spreads still viewed as key growth engines.

Tucker Marshall focused on how the tariff refund is being deployed and on the company’s balance-sheet flexibility. He said the $0.84 first-quarter tariff refund benefit is being partly reinvested into SG&A, marketing and McCalla preproduction, with the balance used to pay down debt. He also said the company is on track to pay down about $500 million of debt this year, has already reached its 3x leverage ratio in Q1, and now has flexibility to contemplate share repurchases. On costs, he said underlying inflation is mid-single-digit excluding green coffee tariffs/refunds, with the increase versus prior expectations driven largely by freight and some commodity/ingredient pressure.

Analysts focused heavily on coffee pricing, tariff refunds, and whether the company would pull forward more investment now that leverage has improved. Management said it remains prudent on coffee volumes because commodity moves are volatile and it has not seen sustained deflation to justify a list-price cut, though it is using promotions to pass some relief to consumers. Questions also centered on Uncrustables capacity and spending: management said it is increasing preproduction expenses for McCalla, advancing some capacity startup, and that the facility is aimed at the core crimped soft-bread format rather than a broader product expansion. In snacks and Hostess, management said dog snacks were strong, Jerky Treats was the weak spot, and Hostess was essentially in line with expectations, with convenience traffic still challenged.